Value bets and MLB predictions for July
It's been awhile since we chipped-in some MLB baseball coverage. As the weather really heats up, and especially here in Las Vegas, I'm taking a shot on some MLB props and special offerings at select online sportsbooks and shooting for a top payout. I'll break down some schedules and MLB teams to target for most wins and projected upside for the month of July.
While I don't spend as much time studying the stats and handicapping MLB odds and match-ups daily as much as I have in the past, I still do bet baseball and look for value when betting at the top online sportsbooks. I also watch for warmer weather that has hit cities like Arlington, TX and bet on more scoring when I see weaker pitchers. That was the case Wednesday when I bet the Tigers/Rangers game over 9.5 and first 5 innings over (Rangers won 10-2). Thanks to my Canadian colleague Sherwood, you can glean valuable baseball data and advanced stats from a pro bettor and gain knowledge and insight without paying a tout for far less insight.
Finding the right sportsbook to bet on MLB can add up when betting baseball, and a dime line is the way to go at top sportsbooks like BetAnySports and BetOnline - who partner with Off Shore Gaming Association for special promos and bonuses.
Most MLB Wins for July
Here in Las Vegas, a top sportsbook with the best odds and futures is Circa Sports - home to Stadium Swim, NFL Millions and Survivor Contests and the world's largest sportsbook along with the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. They not only deliver a dime line on some matchups (Astros -110 vs Cardinals +100 on June 29), but Circa also posts props that include monthly MLB odds on teams to win the most games in a given month.
These MLB team wins odds were posted June 28 for the start of July. I'll break down some thoughts below without spending too much time researching and just looking at teams schedules and value on some longer shots.
Teams I've bet so far to have the most wins in July are:
- Minnesota Twins (+5000)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+5000)
- Los Angeles Angels (+6500)
And smaller stakes on the Detroit Tigers (+20500) and Los Angeles Dodgers (+875)
The favorites for most wins in July are the San Francisco Giants (+525), Atlanta Braves (+700), LA Dodgers (+875) and Houston Astros (+1050).
The Twins are my top target in the American League and Minnesota has a very favorable schedule in July. Plenty of upside with their top-tier pitching staff (top-5 starter and bullpen ERA) despite Tyler Mahle being sidelined and Kenta Maeda just returning from injury for two recent starts. Byron Buxton (DH) was beaned by a ball and missed two weeks to start the month of June. He then went on an 0-for-18 hitless streak upon his return, and enters the Twins last game of June hitting just .203 and on another 1-for-18 WTF hitting slump. Buxton and SS Carlos Correa (.212) are the Twins highest (over)paid players and clearly not leading by example with their bats.
The Twins are hitting just .231 as a team (sixth worst AL and .710 OPS) with $35M/year man Correa leading the team in RBIs (37). The AL Central co-leading but under-achieving Twins (40-42) can take over the very weak division if they start to play to their potential. The Twins were 30/1 to have the most wins in June, and now 50/1 for July with a much softer schedule.
Twins July schedule
- A's (21-61) - 3x
- Royals (22-58) - 6x
- White Sox (35-47) - 3x
- Mariners (38-41) - 7x
- Orioles (48-31) - 5x
The Twins play 24 games in July, while the Baltimore Orioles play a league-high 26 and all against winning teams except for the Twins, who will be a winning team after July is finished. Tough to bet on the AL East teams with baseball's toughest division and even the red-hot division leading Tampa Bay Rays, who also play just 24 games and have odds of +1700 for most July wins after being the favorite in June (+475).
The Milwaukee Brewers (42-38) are just a half game behind the surprising Cincinnati Reds in the weaker NL Central. But the Brew Crew play 25 games in July and battle the Reds nine times with six of those games at home. Add in games against the losing Pirates and Cubs, and Milwaukee could be money in July if they can also win more than five games against the NL's top team Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies (9 games total).
The Detroit Tigers have been without some key starting pitchers, but are a team to watch for improvement later in the season and years ahead. The LA Angeles play mostly losing teams in July, except for the division rival Houston Astros, along with the Toronto Blue Jays, LA Dodgers (2x) and surprising Arizona Diamondbacks (2x).
The Astros have a pretty favorable schedule and top pitching staff, but do play the division-leading Texas Rangers six times including three at home to close the month along with the AL-best Tampa Bay Rays.
The 2023 All-Star Game is July 11 at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Recall last year in July when the Mariners went on a 14-game winning streak. The M's are 50/1 to have the most wins in July, but Seattle is capable of improving on their sub-.500 season thus far. However, the Mariners do play mostly winning teams in July and their first nine games ahead of the All-Star break are against the Rays, Giants and Astros with seven on the road.
Thus far in June 2023, teams with the most wins and best records are:
- Atlanta Braves (20-4)
- San Francisco Giants (17-7)
- Cincinnati Reds (17-9)
- Tampa Bay Rays (15-10)
- Toronto Blue Jays (15-10)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (15-10)
- Texas Rangers (14-10)
- Cleveland Indians (14-10)
The Giants had a 10-game winning streak in June and were 35/1 to have the most wins in June. The Reds (150/1 June) surprised many media members, fans and bettors and rattled off a 12-game winning streak, including as an underdog in seven of those first eight wins. The Braves are on a current 5-game winning streak, and have ridden 7 and 8 game winning streaks in June to the best record (20-4). Atlanta was +875 to have most wins in June. The San Diego Padres (37-43) and St. Louis Cardinals (33-46) have been two of the most disappointing teams in MLB this season as expected early-season division and NL contenders.
What's interesting to note about these bets is that not all teams play the same amount of games. The All-Star break in July gives teams extra days off and rest for teams to also adjust their pitching staffs and get players healthy and some to return from injury. That won't be the case yet for 2022 American League MVP Aaron Judge of the Yankees, who remains sidelined since June 3rd with a toe ligament injury. That alone should keep you off the Yankees (+1800) for most wins in July with New York just 10-12 in June.
Making MLB History
The Yankees and Bronx Bomber fans did have something to celebrate on June 28 when pitcher Domingo German tossed the 24th perfect game in MLB history in a 11-0 shutout of the pathetic Oakland A's (to become the Las Vegas A's)! It was the first perfect game in MLB since the great Felix Hernandez achieved baseball history with a perfect game in 2012. Except German is far from a polished pitcher or pro. In his previous two starts, German had allowed 15 earned runs in 5.1 innings. Last month, German was hit with a 10-game suspension as a result of getting ejected for a foreign substance (cheating).
We won't cheat ourselves out of taking a swing on some teams with longer odds, more upside and a potential bigger payoff with value odds in play.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with decades of experience and proven results. He's recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights.