Preview and Top 25 Picks for College Football Week 11
Four more Top-25 matchups between ranked teams highlights the College Football Week 11 card. We've got Picks and Opinions below, and our Picks have been profitable the past month and Texas delivered a win in Week 10. The Leans split last week and an Opinion loser was only good for LSU, who looked lost a month ago and is now up to No. 7 in the CFP Poll? Recall when we picked Tennessee to trounce the Tigers in Week 6, and came back in Week 7 and Picked Tennessee again and the Vols were victorious over Alabama.
Bettors are riding LSU (-4) at Arkansas this week. One leading online sportsbook passed along the betting data supporting LSU.
LSU has received more than 2.5 times more tickets and over twice as much money to cover the spread as any other college football team this week. I'm not buying it, unless Hogs QB KJ Jefferson doesn't play (game time decision).
Three top-6 teams in the opening College Football Playoff rankings lost last week - Tennessee, Clemson and Alabama. The 'Tide's second loss essentially eliminates them from the College Football Playoff. No two-loss team has every made the final four CFB Playoff. Georgia vaulted back up to No. 1 with their 27-13 win over Tennessee, who drops to No. 5. I cashed in betting on Notre Dame as 'Dog over Clemson, and the Tigers got trounced 35-14 and dropped to No. 10 in this week's CFB Playoff rankings.
Week 11 Top 25 Matchups
- No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- No. 9 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
- No. 22 UCF at No. 17 Tulane | 7 p.m. | ESPN2
- No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon | 7 p.m. | FOX
College Football Playoff Rankings
Here are the top 10 teams in the current College Football Playoff Rankings
1. Georgia 6. Oregon
2. Ohio State 7. LSU
3. Michigan 8. USC
4. TCU 9. Alabama
5. Tennessee 10. Clemson
Be sure to check out the top defensive teams and defensive dominators in college football. Review the list and update the stats as you evaluate the match-ups each week and use these stats as guidelines when handicapping. Same with top offensive teams with more balanced and efficient offenses as more teams emerge and others fall off.
Top 25 Matchups and Picks
No. 8 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss | 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: Alabama -12 and Total 64 at GT Bets
The 'Tide and Rebels are averaging 483 and 493 yards per game vs FBS foes, but Alabama is down 40 YPG over their last three contests. Alabama is scoring 42 PPG vs Ole Miss 35 PPG. But find a quality win on Alabama's schedule - oh, perhaps Texas 20-19 back in Week 2 when they escaped laying -21 points. They beat A&M 24-20 at home laying -24 points. 'Bama had less than 300 yards offense in a 30-6 home win over Mississippi State. They have struggled in all four road games, and the game they won 49-26 at Arkansas, they led by five into the fourth quarter and the Hogs had a 27-17 first down edge. In the two smallest spreads Alabama has been favored, they lost both games - to Tennessee (-9) and last week LSU (-13). Ole Miss lost at LSU also, 45-20, in a game the Rebels led 20-17 at halftime. Ole Miss leads the nation in rushing for Power 5 teams averaging 271 YPG (49 attempts) vs FBS opponents and closer to 320 YPG over their last three contests. While coach Kiffin may not want QB Jaxson Dart to take off an run as often, he's only the third leading rusher. This is the first time Alabama has two losses on their schedule before the Iron Bowl since 2010. The Tide have trounced Ole Miss averaging 56 PPG in their last six wins over the Rebels. But Mississippi coach Kiffin was on Saban's staff, and Kiffin hasn't slowed down in endgame situations all year, except maybe at LSU. Off a bye week, the Rebels will be ready for 'Bama.
Pick: Ole Miss
No. 22 UCF at No. 17 Tulane | 7:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Line: Tulane -1.5 and Total 54.5 at BetUS
This game is for first place in the AAC, with Tulane 5-0 and Central Florida 4-1 in conference along with Cincinnati (4-1), who UCF beat and Tulane still plays yet this month. Tulane is a defensive dominator, while UCF has moved up into 200 Club status rushing for 233 and passing for 255 yards per game vs FBS opponents. UCF's defense has played well enough in spots, but only have four interceptions. These two teams' yards per play is nearly even at +1.2, but UCF has been through the wringer the last two Saturdays in down to the wire wins against Memphis and Cincinnati, with a 34-13 loss at East Carolina the game prior. Central Florida QB Mikey Keene has filled in well for more mobile starter John Rhys (injured first half vs Cincinnati), and either could play. The Knights play their third road game in four weeks, and the breaks can continue to go Tulane's way as they ride the wave to another win.
No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon | 7 p.m. ET on FOX
Line: Oregon -13 and Total 73 at reduced juice sportsbook Heritage Sports
The line opened Oregon -11 last Sunday, then moved up to -13.5 by Sunday night and has settled at -13 recently, although Bovada still has +13.5. Oregon has won their last five games by at least 15 points while scoring 42-49 points in each contest. The Ducks have now won eight straight games while going 7-1 ATS since the opening week loss to No. 1 Georgia. Washington has won three in a row, but failed to cover each of their last five games, including 24-21 last week vs Oregon State. The Huskies are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games. Looks easy, doesn't it? Well, Washington has been a favorite in every game this season, and now they are a big underdog. The Huskies average 495 yards per game on offense, including 370 passing YPG and rate slightly better than Oregon in expected points added per play. The Ducks do have a powerful, balanced offense averaging 228 rushing and 283 passing yards per game. Husky QB Michael Penix, Jr., has passed for 3,252 yards - second most in the nation, and 30 TD passes. If Penix doesn't doesn't puke and throw picks, the Huskies can clearly hang.
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas | 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Line: Texas -7 and Total 65 at BookMaker
TCU looks tempting as an undefeated No. 4 ranked team taking a full 7-points as 'Dog. In fact, the Horned Frogs have taken more bets than every NCAA team this week except LSU. The linesmaker is telling you he's not sold on the Horn Frogs, and Texas has actually taken more money in this match-up, according to one of my leading online sportsbook contacts. TCU is more reality than perception, unlike Clemson was into their game last week. The Frogs have an elite, balanced offense under veteran coach and first year Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes. Quarterback Max Duggan is the most efficient quarterback in the Big 12 with 273 passing yards per game and a 24:2 TD/INT ratio this season. He leads an offense that runs for 224 YPG and passes for 269 per game. Normally, we would definitely be taking these points with that profile, but concerns with the Frogs defense and good fortune has us laying off this public 'Dog, which Tennessee was last week against Georgia and the sportsbooks cleaned up with the Bulldogs win and cover. Let's instead play the total in a high-scoring game.
All Top 25 Games on Sat., Nov. 12
Odds are subject to change and current betting lines from top rated sportsbook BetOnline. All times Eastern.
No. 1 Georgia (-16) at Mississippi State | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
No. 2 Ohio State (-40.5) vs Indiana | 12 p.m. | FOX
No. 3 Michigan (-30.5) at | 7:30 p.m. | NBC/Peacock
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (-7) | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 5 Tennessee (-20) vs Missouri at | 12 p.m. | CBS
No. 6 Oregon (-13) vs No. 25 Washington | 7 p.m. | FOX
No. 7 LSU (-3.5) at | 12 p.m. | ESPN
No. 8 USC (-34.5) vs Colorado | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 9 Alabama (-11.5) at No. 11 Ole Miss | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
No. 10 Clemson (-7) vs. Louisville | 7 p.m. | ESPN
No. 12 UCLA (-20) | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 13 Utah (-23.5) vs. Stanford | 8 p.m. | ESPN
No. 14 Penn State (-10) vs Maryland | 3:30 p.m. | FOX
No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (-4) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 16 NC State (-) | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
No. 17 Tulane (-1.5 vs No. 22 UCF | 7 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 19 Kansas State at Baylor (-2.5) | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
No. 20 Notre Dame (-16.5) vs Navy | 12 p.m. | ABC (Baltimore)
No. 21 Illinois (-6.5) vs Purdue | 12 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 23 Florida State (-7) at Syracuse | 8 p.m. | ACC Network
No. 24 Kentucky (-18) vs Vanderbilt | :30 p.m. | SEC Network
Check back for more college football betting updates and information you can bet on as the biggest games ahead decide conference titles, bowl game spots and a trip to the College Football Playoff for the top four teams.
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FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.