Analysis and predictions for college football week 12 Top 25 games

Georgia moves back up to No. 1 and Ohio State is No. 2 in the third release of the College Football Playoff rankings. The rest of the top-8 teams remain the same and Missouri makes the biggest move from No. 14 to No. 9 with the Tigers trouncing of Tennessee. I chip-in more Picks, Opinions and Leans on the four CFP Top 25 matchups ahead of next week's Thanksgiving feast of college football's biggest games and rivalry weekend. 

All five Power 5 conferences are represented in the top 5 of the CFP rankings, which is the first time this has occurred in the decade-long CFP history. Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State and Washington are all undefeated at 10-0. 

There are four CFP Top 25 matchups this week drawing more watch and wager interest. 

- No. 1 Georgia (-10.5) at No. 18 Tennessee 
- No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State (-1)
- No. 17 Arizona (-1) vs. No. 22 Utah
- No. 21 Kansas State (-9.5) at No. 25 Kansas

Last Saturday's Week 11 Opinions went 2-3 and Picks 1-0, which was a Bonus Pick winner (6-0 YTD). 

All college football 2023 Picks and Opinions through Week 11 are 26-24, including 20-16 ATS on sides. 

Top 25 Matchup Picks: 3-6 
Top 25 Matchup Opinions: 8-11
Top 25 Game Picks: 3-1
Bonus Picks: 6-0
Bonus Opinions: 1-1
Top 25 Games Opinions: 4-2
Top 25 Totals Opinions: 1-3 

Bet Fairway's Picks at these Top Online Sportsbooks for more profits and payouts. 

Top 25 Games, Odds and TV Schedule

College football odds from BetOnline refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern (ET). 

Saturday, Nov. 18

No. 1 Georgia (-10) at. No. 18 Tennessee | 3:30 p.m. | CBS 
No. 2 Ohio State (-27.5) vs. Minnesota | 4 p.m. | Big Ten Network  
No. 3 Michigan (-19) at Maryland | 12 p.m. | FOX 
No. 4 Florida State (NL) vs. North Alabama
No. 5 Washington at. No. 11 Oregon State (-1) | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 6 Oregon (-24) at Arizona State | 4 p.m. | FOX
No. 7 Texas (-7.5) at Iowa State | 8 p.m. | FOX
No. 8 Alabama (NL) vs. Chattanooga
No. 9 Missouri (-11) vs. Florida | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 10 Louisville (pk) at Miami (FL) | 12 p.m. | ABC
No. 12 Penn State (-20.5) vs. Rutgers | 12 p.m. | FS1
No. 13 Ole Miss (-37) vs. UL Monroe | 12 p.m. | SEC Network 
No. 14 Oklahoma (-24) at BYU | 12 p.m. | ESPN
No. 15 LSU (-31.5) vs. Georgia State | 12 p.m. | ABC
No. 16 Iowa (-3) vs. Illinois | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
No. 17 Arizona (-1) vs. No. 22 Utah | 2:30 p.m. | Pac 12 Network
No. 19 Notre Dame (-24.5) vs. Wake Forest | 3:30 p.m. | NBC
No. 20 North Carolina at Clemson (-7.5) | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 21 Kansas State (-9.5) at No. 25 Kansas | 7 p.m. | FS1
No. 23 Oklahoma State (-6) at Houston | 4 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 24 Tulane (-9) at Florida Atlantic | 12 p.m. | ESPN+

USC (7-4) has fallen out of the Top 25, but the Trojans (-6.5) have a big rivalry game Saturday at home vs. the UCLA Bruins (6-4) in their final matchup as Pac 12 rivals before both move to the Big Ten next season, along with top-ranked teams Oregon and Washington. 

The Mountain West Conference has five teams in contention to play in the MWC Championship Game on Dec. 2. The two teams tied at the top heading into Saturday's Week 11 action are UNLV and Air Force (-3), and the Rebels and Falcons battle in Colorado Springs with both teams 5-1. The advance line last week before the Falcons last at Hawaii was Air Force (-9.5) vs. UNLV. The winner likely produces the Mountain West Coach of the Year, although UNLV's Barry Odom could still get it in defeat with the outstaning job he and his staff have done in their first year in Las Vegas and leading UNLV to a bowl game for the first time since 2013.

Air Force was upset at Hawaii last week as a 20' point favorite. Meanwhile, I was at the UNLV vs. Wyoming game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas last Friday night, and the Rebels 34-14 win moves them to 8-2 SU and a nation-best 9-1 ATS!

Speaking of underrated, @unlvfootball wins again, 34-14 over Wyoming. Rebels now 8-2, 5-1 Mountain West & 1st place showdown at Air Force next Sat, Nov. 18. Nation-best 9-1 against the spread! #CFBBetting pic.twitter.com/qKV0ljs9Bd

— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) November 11, 2023

Week 12 College Football Playoff Top 25 Picks And Matchups 

No. 1 Georgia at No. 18 Tennessee | 3:30 p.m. on CBS
Line: Georgia -10 / 10.5 and Total 58
Pick: Tennessee

Must take with Tennessee and their '200 Club' offense that both runs and passes for at least 210 yards per game. Sure the Volunteers were whipped last week at Missouri 36-7. But Tennessee was good enough to lead Alabama 20-7 at halftime on the road in Week 8 before losing 34-20 in a misleading final that saw Tennessee outgain Alabama while racking up more than 400 yards offense. Georgia is a defensive dominator, but the Vols are back home in Knoxville where they are on a 8-0 SU/ATS run vs. FBS opponents in front of a rabid crowd against the defending champs, who was the last team to beat Tennessee at home in 2021. Plenty of appeal on the Vols despite potential turnovers if QB Joe Milton is not able to handle the pressure when forced to pass. But the Playbook Sports awesome angle working against Georgia also notes that since 1980, teams that are 10-0 and a double-digit favorite playing a .666 or greater opponent are just 2-17 ATS. 

No. 22 Utah at No. 17 Arizona | 2:30 p.m. on Pac 12 Network
Line: Arizona -1 and Total 58
Lean: Arizona 

Both teams 7-3 and Arizona has been the surprise of the Pac 12 and now 5-2 in conference play with Utah 4-3. Arizona had played 8 games under the total with their improved defense until last week's 34-31 win over Colorado - the Wildcats fourth straight win. Tough situational spot for Utah off the all-in effort at Washington last week came up short - eliminating the Utes from a shot at the Pac-12 championship game and a third straight Pac-12 title. The Utes 25 points per game offense is only better than ASU and Stanford. While the Ute's pass efficiency defense is best in the Pac-12, I'm not on their side with the situation, or enough support for the Wildcats with their 0-6 SU struggles in games before playing rival Arizona State. 

No. 21 Kansas State at No. 25 Kansas | 7 p.m on FS1
Line: Kansas State -9.5 and Total 57.5
Lean: Kansas State

Check status of Kansas QB Jason Beam, who was injured early in last week's 16-13 home loss to Texas Tech.

No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State | 7:30 p.m. on ABC
Line: Oregon State -1 and Total 62.5
Pick: Oregon State

The line has dipped with a little more money coming in on the Huskies. In one of the biggest games of the week, Oregon State (8-2) tackles undefeated Washington (10-0). A win by the Beavers and a rivalry win over Oregon next week sends OSU to the Pac-12 title game. It may be a longshot, but don't underestimate this Oregon State team that will bring their best to take down the Pac-12 powers leaving the conference next season. Oregon State cashed in for us in Week 10 with their 62-17 blowout win over Stanford last Saturday. The Beavers are the best in college football the past three years at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, going 18-1 SU/ATS. The Beavers near 200 club offense and strong offensive line averages more than 450 yards per game. Add in a top-4 Pac-12 defense and capable pass defense to create some trouble spots for Huskies QB Michael Penix, Jr. and Washington's No. 1 pass offense, and we have a team ready to take down the undefeated Huskies. 

Top 25 Picks 

No. 3 Michigan at Maryland
Line: Michigan -19
Pick: Maryland 

Ultimate sandwich spot for Michigan (10-0) off their big road win at Penn State and 'Big Game' rivalry showdown for all the marbles next week at home vs. Ohio State. Maryland (6-4) offers value having been +17 last month on the road at Ohio State and +7.5 at home vs. Penn State this month. Sure they lost by 20+ points in both games, but those are the only two teams that out-gained the Terps this season and they will bring a spirited effort against the Big Ten's best with Michigan dealing with all the off field distractions, no coach Harbaugh on the sidelines and in the bad scheduling situation with so much ahead next week. Maryland's defense is also solid enough allowing less than 350 yards per game, and the Wolverines ran the ball 32 straight times to close last week's win over Penn State. Strong situational and technical angles line up for the Terps making this a Pick rather than an Opinion. 

Check back for more updates, analysis and information you can bet on by Saturday morning, along with any additional picks.

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