Preview and picks for NCAA Football Week 6

The opening weekend of October kicks off with four Top 25 matchups on Saturday, Oct. 7. Some big rivalry games top the action when No. 3 Texas and No. 12 Oklahoma meet for the last time as Big 12 members before they bolt for the SEC next season. The Southeastern conference (SEC) now leads the way with the most AP Top 25 teams (7), and two matchups Saturday will also be driving the betting action at the leading online sportsbooks. 

We had a solid September with our Top 25 Picks and Opinions while expanding to more Top 25 games as there were fewer Top 25 matchups the opening three weeks. Our Week 5 picks produced a 2-0 winning result with a Top 25 matchup total winner, and a bonus picks on Baylor (+11.5), who rallied for the outright win 36-35. That game also had a significant market move dropping down to +7.5 near kickoff at some online sportsbooks. We update the bigger line moves for Week 6 in our Top 25 coverage in Forbes. So do your best when betting, and understand we don't control the market. For example, I bet Central Florida (UCF) +3.5 this week, and the Knights are now a -2 point favorite at Kansas.

I also provide these picks for news and entertainment purposes and you decide if you want to bet on the Picks, Opinions or Leans. I do bet many games, including props and live betting. But I don't sell picks or tout, but you can see those pay picks options, videos and game reviews at affiliate Gambler's World. 

I like to dig into stats and have provided information and insight for years looking for match-up edges, along with stats and situational plays that can often be overlooked when evaluating the games and matchups. As we move forward, I'll be adding more insight on other handicapping methods and ways to add more value picks to your betting portfolio. 

All college football 2023 Picks and Opinions through Week 5 are 12-5, including 10-3 ATS on sides. 

Top 25 Matchup Picks: 1-1 
Top 25 Matchup Opinions: 4-1
Top 25 Game Picks: 1-0
Bonus Picks: 2-0
Bonus Opinions: 0-1
Top 25 Games Opinions: 3-1
Top 25 Totals Opinions: 1-1 

Just one Top 25 Pick last week (1-0), and the four Leans went 2-2. No Opinions, but the bonus Pick on Baylor added to the profits and payouts. 

Top 25 Games, Odds and TV Schedule

College football odds from reduced juice sportsbook BetAnySports refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern (ET). 

Saturday, Oct. 7 

No. 1 Georgia (-14.5) vs. No. 20 Kentucky | 7 p.m. | ESPN
No. 2 Michigan (-18.5) at Minnesota | 7:30 p.m. | NBC/Peacock
No. 3 Texas (-5.5) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma | 12 p.m. | ABC
No. 4 Ohio State (-18.5) vs. Maryland | 12 p.m. | FOX
No. 5 Florida State (-24) vs. Virginia Tech | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 6 Penn State | Bye
No. 7 Washington | Bye
No. 8 Oregon | Bye
No. 9 USC (-21.5) vs. Arizona | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 10 Notre Dame (-6.5) at No. 25 Louisville | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 11 Alabama (-2.5) at Texas A&M | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
No. 13 Washington State at UCLA (-3.5) | 3 p.m. | Pac-12 Network
No. 14 North Carolina (-9.5) vs. Syracuse | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 15 Oregon State (-8.5) at Cal | 10 p.m. | Pac-12 Network
No. 16 Ole Miss (-11.5) vs. Arkansas | 7:30 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 17 Miami (-20.5) vs. Georgia Tech | 8 p.m. | ACC Network
No. 18 Utah | Bye
No. 19 Duke | Bye
No. 21 Missouri vs. No. 23 LSU (-5.5) | 12 p.m. | ESPN
No. 22 Tennessee | Bye
No. 24 Fresno State (-5.5) at Wyoming | 8 p.m. | FOX 

Others receiving votes: Maryland 81, Kansas State 44, Texas A&M 31, UCLA 19, Tulane 8, Air Force 7, Wisconsin 6, Clemson 5, West Virginia 5, Kansas 3, James Madison 3, Colorado 1.

Week 6 Top 25 Picks And Matchups

According to my contacts at the leading online sportsbooks, three of these Top 25 matchups are the most bet games of college football Saturday on Oct. 7. It's led by Oklahoma-Texas, and also includes Kentucky-Georgia, Notre Dame-Louisville. Also, other Top 25 teams are drawing major money and bets in their matchups including Ohio State-Maryland (Terps ranked No. 26), Alabama-Texas A&M and the battle of the Little Brown Jug between Michigan and Minnesota. 

No. 12 Oklahoma vs No. 3 Texas | 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC
Line: Texas -5.5 and Total 60.5
Opinion: Texas and Lean Over

This line has dropped from Texas -6.5 to -5.5, although it opened Texas -5 last Sunday in Las Vegas. This is a neutral field game in Dallas.  Oklahoma (5-0) is one of just four teams that are also 5-0 ATS. The other three teams have a bye this week, including the only non-Power 5 team that is making money for us here in Las Vegas, UNLV (5-0 ATS). This Oklahoma-Texas Red River Rivalry game is annually one of the biggest of the season. It's also the final time these two teams meet as Big 12 members before they move to the SEC next season. As one of three Top 25 matchups between undefeated teams, this big rivalry game will be the most bet of the day. The Sooners are an underdog for the first time this season after being at least a 2 TD favorite in their first five games. The Sooners (510 YPG) and Longhorns (478 YPG) offenses are among the best in the country statistically, but neither team is yet a '200 Club' member rushing and passing for at least 200 yards. Texas does average 191 rushing YPG, and both teams are allowing 4.5 yards per play on defense, which ranks top 15 in the country. Oklahoma is also +8 in turnover margin while playing a softer schedule than Texas and facing more inexperience and confused quarterbacks. Still, stat projections are for both offenses to gain at least 400 yards. Major redemption game for Oklahoma after last year's 49-0 Texas win and smackdown of the Sooners. Oklahoma senior QB Dillon Gabriel did not play in that game, and he's been terrific passing for nearly 1,600 yards in five games with a 15/2 TD-INT ratio. But Texas sophomore QB Quinn Ewers has been solid with nearly 1,400 passing yards and a 10/1 ratio while supported by a more balanced attack and better running game. Texas does fit some negative ATS situations as an undefeated 5-0 teams. The Playbook newsletter also notes that 5-0 teams as a single digit favorites in more competitive contests are 59-83-2 ATS overall, including 23-43-2 ATS against avenging foes. Still, I have an Opinion that Texas will Hook 'em. 

No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri | 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Line: LSU -5.5 and Total 64
Opinion: LSU and Over  

The LSU Tigers (3-2) defense has been lit up by top offenses of Florida State and Ole Miss last week. But QB Jayden Daniels and the Tigers offense has tons of firepower and too much for Missouri, who is undefeated but likely takes their first loss this week at home. LSU is +122 yards per game and did win by 27 at Miss State in September. The LSU Tigers offense has also put up the most yards that all five of their opponents have allowed this season, and Missouri has allowed 5.8 yards per play over their last three games against better opponents but none as strong or explosive as LSU's offense, who ranks top-5 in the country averaging 7.5 yards per play.

No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia | 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Line: Georgia -14.5 and Total 47.5
Pick: Kentucky

A huge SEC East battle with both teams 5-0. The Wildcats are nearly a '200 Club' offense rushing for 185 yards and passing for 207 yards per game (average). See those key balanced offense stats below, and know that Georgia has not performed up to expectations in the betting market, going 1-4 ATS with a half-point cover if you bet it best vs. Ball State. Neither has the 'Dawgs offense, which has often started slowly and scored just 17 points in the first quarter this season. The Bulldogs running game is down more than a full yards per rush (4.2) this season vs. FBS opponents. Georgia also trailed South Carolina and Auburn in the second half, and barely pulled out the win on the Plains last week and failed to score 30 points against either of those SEC foes. If that continues vs. the Wildcats, we'll have another ATS win on Kentucky. The media hype has lessened on the defending champs, but Georgia is still so talented, but also not as dominant along the defensive line. Playbook notes that Georgia is 0-4 ATS in the last four series meetings with Kentucky, and Kentucky is also 15-3 ATS with conference revenge the past six seasons, including 7-0 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated. But Georgia has beaten Kentucky 13 straight times, and the Wildcats have only scored scored 6, 13, 3, 0, 17, 13 points the last six meetings. Still, plenty of points to take in this battle of unbeatens. 

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 25 Louisville | 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Line: Notre Dame -6 and Total 54.5
Opinion: Notre Dame

Notre Dame tackles its third-straight Top 25 opponents, but Louisville is the weakest of the three and the Cardinals have played a much softer schedule. 

Bonus Picks

Opinion: Oklahoma State (+11.5) vs Kansas State (Friday). - This line would have been nearly a FG at the start of the season, and while K-State has nearly a 200 Club offense, it's the Cowboys playing with major redemption and a positive home underdog role for coach Gundy. 

Pick: No. 25 Fresno State (-5.5 or -6) at Wyoming - I've ridden the WYO Cowboys to cash-in a number of times in the early season as 'Dog, but Wyoming has also been fortunate while getting out-gained 385-325. Fresno State (5-0) is the real deal and best in the Mountain West with a top run defense allowing just 83 rushing yards per game at 2.7 yards per rush vs. FBS opponents. I featured Fresno State and top coach Jeff Tedford last week in my Top 25 coverage in Forbes. Wyoming was outgained badly two weeks ago at home by Appalachian State, and pulled out a very fortunate 22-19 win. Then last week as a big favorite, they had even yardage at home to New Mexico in a 35-26 win. The Bulldogs of Fresno State have won the last four meetings over Wyoming by a combined score of 87-10. It won't be that one-sided, but a double-digit road win is more likely than any upset as Fresno extends their winning streak to 15 games dating back to last season.

CFB Teams that Rush and Pass for 200 or more yards per game (through Sept. games vs FBS opponents only)

Liberty 271 / 230
UCF 256 / 276         
Toledo - 238 / 208
Tennessee  232 / 237
Louisiana 231 / 237
App State 219 / 263
Cincinnati 218 / 228
Miami 217 / 279
TCU 210 / 289
Wake Forest 203 / 223
Wisconsin 202 / 226
California 201 / 241

Others
Oregon 197 / 318
Kansas State 189 / 258
Michigan 184 / 227
UNLV 200 / 194
Texas 192 / 286
Ole Miss 190 / 290
Kentucky 185 / 207

Check back for more analysis and each Saturday at OSGA, and on X (@FairwayJay) for more updates and information you can bet on. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. FairwayJay chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.