The #25 SMU Mustangs (9-1) will travel to Annapolis, Maryland for a Saturday American Athletic Conference game against Navy (7-2). The opening kickoff is slated for 3:30 PM ET. As of this moment (11/22) in time, the college football betting odds at 5Dimes shows Navy as a 3.5-point favorite.

AAC Elimination Game

SMU and Navy are still very much alive for a chance to play in the conference championship game. Along with Memphis, they’re entrenched in a 3-way tie atop the AAC West Division with each having an identical 5-1 record. However, Memphis holds the tiebreaker by having defeated Navy and SMU earlier this season. The loser of this game will be eliminated from any conference title game hopes. If either Navy or SMU wins their remaining two games, they’ll need either South Florida (4-6) or #19 Cincinnati (9-1) to knock off Memphis in one the Tigers final two contests.



Tricky Line

My antennas popped out of my head when I originally looked at this line. After all, we have an unranked Navy teams that opened as a 3.0-point favorite which quickly ascended to 3.5 against a ranked opponent in SMU. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are coming off an embarrassing 52-20 loss at Notre Dame last Saturday. As to be expected, 69% of point-spread bets made on this game sided with SMU thus far. This is a textbook example of reverse line movement, which clearly indicates early sharp money on the home favorite. The public is right on some occasions. Nevertheless, when they’re on the wrong side of reverse line movement the chances of them being correct is substantially diminished.

Strong Home Field

Since joining the American Athletic Conference in 2015, Navy is 16-4 straight up in conference home games, and that includes a very profitable 13-7 ATS (65%). Additionally, since the start of the 2008 season, Navy is 54-13 (.806) at home. The Midshipmen are 5-0 overall at home in 2019, and they’ve won by a decisive 22.8 points per game.

Porous Mustangs Defense

Despite SMU winning 2 of its last 3, their defense has been horrible during that stretch while allowing 45.3 points and 556.0 yards per game.

Final Analysis and Pick

Both teams are enjoying surprisingly good seasons when considering SMU was 5-7 and Navy 3-10 a year ago. The strength of home field advantage and the aforesaid reverse line movement is difficult for me to ignore when making my week 13 college football predictions.

Pick: Buy Navy down to -3.0

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com