Early Significant 2020 MLB Season Money Line Results

At the time of this writing (7/31), we have completed 8 days of the 2020 MLB season. I have some noteworthy observations that may surprise many of you pertaining to early MLB betting results.

Money Line Betting and Money Management

As opposed to wagering on the NFL or NBA where betting on sides mainly revolves around beating a point-spread, Major League Baseball is geared toward money line wagering. It is also just a matter of picking which team will win as opposed to beating a number. Consequently, exercising proper money management techniques are crucial to preserving or adding to sports betting bankroll.

The blueprint for success as it relates to money line betting is first and foremost an ability to pick winners. The second highest priority is rate of return on investment. Setting yourself up for an ample rate of return on investment does not necessarily line up with a win percentage like it does with point-spread wagering. I know that sounds like an oxymoron, but I promise to make sense of it all throughout the content of this article.

My rule of thumb is to never bet on money line favorites that exceed -150. Even with that in mind, I rarely choose to go more than -140. Once again, the betting statistics through the first 8 days of this baseball season will further quantify my strategy.

MLB Squares Endure Massive Early Beating

I just alluded to my practice of never choosing an MLB money line favorite of -150. This betting philosophy has never been more prophetic than it has proven too be thus far in 2020.

Since the onset of the 2020 MLB campaign, money line favorites of -151 or more have gone 23-17 (57.5%). If you had that exact record when engaging in NFL point-spread betting and based on an average of $110 to win $100 per wager, it would have returned a net profit of $430. That equates to a moderate 1.7% return on investment. Conversely, betting on this season’s 40 MLB money line favorites of -151 or more has come at an average bet of $207.60 to win $100. That 23-17 record at those median odds have resulted in a loss of $1460. That is a -17.0% return on investment. Although that rate of losses will surely subside to some degree, betting on large money line favorites is an inevitable way to make your MLB betting experience short lived.

Now let me put that above $1460 loss into appropriate perspective. Even if you were to win your next 15 bets at money line odds of -151 or more, it would only result in an overall net profit of only $40. Can you imagine going on that torrid of a winning streak which is highly improbable to begin with, improving your season record to 38-17 (69.1%), then only to realize it produced a $40 profit and meager 0.8% return on investment?

If indeed that above scenario were to occur, it would unequivocally prompt a feeling of extreme relief, but also would not come without taking a huge emotional toll on most individuals. Hence, when emotion becomes part of one’s daily sports betting, bad decisions are more likely to transpire, and money management discipline goes by the wayside. Which is unquestionably not conducive to a recipe for success.

Reasonable MLB Money Line Favorites Cashing Big

Now let us look at betting small to reasonably sized MLB money line favorites. During the identical 8-day period from 7/23 to 7/30, MLB money line favorites of -106 to -150 have gone 33-16 (67.3%). Those 49 favorites came at an average of betting $127.70 to win $100 and manufactured a net profit of $1239. That is a terrific 20.2% return on investment.

I can tell you with utmost certainty based on my three decades worth of experience in the sports betting industry, a 67.3% win rate and 20.2% return on investment will not be sustainable over a 60-game MLB schedule, let alone the customary 162-game slate. Nonetheless, it does provide a more plausible path to long term success.