Early Significant 2020 MLB Season Money Line Results



OSGA sports betting analyst Ross Benjamin provides us with some intriguing early season MLB money line betting results. Ross emphasizes and displays precisely why proper money management is imperative in becoming a successful MLB bettor.

Early Significant 2020 MLB Season Money Line Results

At the time of this writing (7/31), we have completed 8 days of the 2020 MLB season. I have some noteworthy observations that may surprise many of you pertaining to early MLB betting results.

Money Line Betting and Money Management

As opposed to wagering on the NFL or NBA where betting on sides mainly revolves around beating a point-spread, Major League Baseball is geared toward money line wagering. It is also just a matter of picking which team will win as opposed to beating a number. Consequently, exercising proper money management techniques are crucial to preserving or adding to sports betting bankroll.

The blueprint for success as it relates to money line betting is first and foremost an ability to pick winners. The second highest priority is rate of return on investment. Setting yourself up for an ample rate of return on investment does not necessarily line up with a win percentage like it does with point-spread wagering. I know that sounds like an oxymoron, but I promise to make sense of it all throughout the content of this article.

My rule of thumb is to never bet on money line favorites that exceed -150. Even with that in mind, I rarely choose to go more than -140. Once again, the betting statistics through the first 8 days of this baseball season will further quantify my strategy.

MLB Squares Endure Massive Early Beating

I just alluded to my practice of never choosing an MLB money line favorite of -150. This betting philosophy has never been more prophetic than it has proven too be thus far in 2020.

Since the onset of the 2020 MLB campaign, money line favorites of -151 or more have gone 23-17 (57.5%). If you had that exact record when engaging in NFL point-spread betting and based on an average of $110 to win $100 per wager, it would have returned a net profit of $430. That equates to a moderate 1.7% return on investment. Conversely, betting on this season’s 40 MLB money line favorites of -151 or more has come at an average bet of $207.60 to win $100. That 23-17 record at those median odds have resulted in a loss of $1460. That is a -17.0% return on investment. Although that rate of losses will surely subside to some degree, betting on large money line favorites is an inevitable way to make your MLB betting experience short lived.

Date Site Team Starting Pitcher Opponent Starting Pitcher Final W/L
Jul 23, 2020 home Dodgers Dustin May - R Giants Johnny Cueto - R 8-1 W
Jul 23, 2020 away Yankees Gerrit Cole - R Nationals Max Scherzer - R 4-1 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Astros Justin Verlander - R Mariners Marco Gonzales - L 8-2 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Cardinals Jack Flaherty - R Pirates Joe Musgrove - R 5-4 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Dodgers Ross Stripling - R Giants Tyler Anderson - L 9-1 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Indians Shane Bieber - R Royals Danny Duffy - L 2-0 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Mets Jacob Degrom-R Braves Mike Soroka - R 1-0 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Phillies Aaron Nola - R Marlins Sandy Alcantara - R 2-5 L
Jul 24, 2020 home Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi - R Orioles Tommy Milone - L 13-2 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Reds Sonny Gray - R Tigers Matthew Boyd - L 7-1 W
Jul 25, 2020 home Astros Lance Mccullers Jr - R Mariners Taijuan Walker - R 7-2 W
Jul 25, 2020 home Cardinals Adam Wainwright - R Pirates Trevor Williams - R 9-1 W
Jul 25, 2020 home Dodgers Alex Wood - L Giants Logan Webb - R 4-5 L
Jul 25, 2020 home Indians Mike Clevinger - R Royals Brady Singer - R 2-3 L
Jul 25, 2020 away Yankees James Paxton - L Nationals Erick Fedde - R 2-9 L
Jul 25, 2020 home Phillies Zack Wheeler - R Marlins Caleb Smith - L 7-1 W
Jul 25, 2020 home Red Sox Martin Perez - L Orioles Alex Cobb - R 2-7 L
Jul 25, 2020 home Reds Luis Castillo - R Tigers Ivan Nova - R 4-6 L
Jul 26, 2020 home Astros Zack Greinke - R Mariners Yusei Kikuchi - L 6-7 L
Jul 26, 2020 home Dodgers Julio Urias - L Giants Drew Smyly - L 1-3 L
Jul 26, 2020 home Indians Carlos Carrasco - R Royals Ronald Bolanos - R 9-2 W
Jul 26, 2020 home Phillies Vince Velasquez - R Marlins Robert Dugger - R 6-11 L
Jul 26, 2020 home Rays Blake Snell - L Blue Jays Thomas Hatch - R 6-5 W
Jul 26, 2020 home Red Sox Ryan Weber - R Orioles Wade Leblanc - L 4-7 L
Jul 26, 2020 home Reds Trevor Bauer - R Tigers Spencer Turnbull - R 2-3 L
Jul 26, 2020 away Twins Kenta Maeda - R White Sox Reynaldo Lopez - R 14-2 W
Jul 27, 2020 home Astros Josh James - R Mariners Kendall Graveman - R 8-5 W
Jul 27, 2020 away Brewers Adrian Houser - R Pirates Steven Brault - L 6-5 W
Jul 28, 2020 home Angels Patrick Sandoval - R Mariners Justus Sheffield - L 10-2 W
Jul 28, 2020 home Athletics Daniel Mengden - R Rockies Antonio Senzatela - R 3-8 L
Jul 28, 2020 away Brewers Josh Lindblom - R Pirates Derek Holland - L 6-8 L
Jul 29, 2020 home Angels Andrew Heaney - L Mariners Justin Dunn - R 7-10 L
Jul 29, 2020 away Nationals Max Scherzer - R Blue Jays Nate Pearson - R 4-0 W
Jul 29, 2020 away Padres Chris Paddack - R Giants Johnny Cueto - R 6-7 L
Jul 29, 2020 home Mets Jacob Degrom - R Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi - R 5-6 L
Jul 29, 2020 away Yankees Gerrit Cole - R Orioles Asher Wojciechowski - R 9-3 W
Jul 29, 2020 home Twins Rich Hill - L Cardinals Daniel Ponce De Leon - R 3-0 W
Jul 30, 2020 home Angels Dylan Bundy - R Mariners Marco Gonzales - L 5-8 L
Jul 30, 2020 away Padres Dinelson Lamet - R Giants Kevin Gausman - R 12-7 W
Jul 30, 2020 away Yankees JA Happ - L Orioles John Means - L 8-6 W


Now let me put that above $1460 loss into appropriate perspective. Even if you were to win your next 15 bets at money line odds of -151 or more, it would only result in an overall net profit of only $40. Can you imagine going on that torrid of a winning streak which is highly improbable to begin with, improving your season record to 38-17 (69.1%), then only to realize it produced a $40 profit and meager 0.8% return on investment?

MLB Betting tipsIf indeed that above scenario were to occur, it would unequivocally prompt a feeling of extreme relief, but also would not come without taking a huge emotional toll on most individuals. Hence, when emotion becomes part of one’s daily sports betting, bad decisions are more likely to transpire, and money management discipline goes by the wayside. Which is unquestionably not conducive to a recipe for success.

Reasonable MLB Money Line Favorites Cashing Big

Now let us look at betting small to reasonably sized MLB money line favorites. During the identical 8-day period from 7/23 to 7/30, MLB money line favorites of -106 to -150 have gone 33-16 (67.3%). Those 49 favorites came at an average of betting $127.70 to win $100 and manufactured a net profit of $1239. That is a terrific 20.2% return on investment.

I can tell you with utmost certainty based on my three decades worth of experience in the sports betting industry, a 67.3% win rate and 20.2% return on investment will not be sustainable over a 60-game MLB schedule, let alone the customary 162-game slate. Nonetheless, it does provide a more plausible path to long term success.

Date Site Team Starting Pitcher Opponent Starting Pitcher Final W/L
Jul 24, 2020 home Athletics Frankie Montas - R Angels Andrew Heaney - L 7-3 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Cubs Kyle Hendricks - R Brewers Brandon Woodruff - R 3-0 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Padres Chris Paddack - R Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner - L 7-2 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Rangers Lance Lynn - R Rockies German Marquez - R 1-0 W
Jul 24, 2020 home Rays Charlie Morton - R Blue Jays Hyun Jin Ryu - L 4-6 L
Jul 24, 2020 away Twins Jose Berrios - R White Sox Lucas Giolito - R 10-5 W
Jul 25, 2020 home Athletics Sean Manaea - L Angels Dylan Bundy - R 1-4 L
Jul 25, 2020 home Cubs Yu Darvish - R Brewers Corbin Burnes - R 3-8 L
Jul 25, 2020 away Braves Max Fried - L Mets Steven Matz - L 5-3 W
Jul 25, 2020 home Padres Dinelson Lamet - R Diamondbacks Robbie Ray - L 5-1 W
Jul 25, 2020 home Rangers Mike Minor - L Rockies Jon Gray - R 2-3 L
Jul 25, 2020 home Rays Ryan Yarbrough - L Blue Jays Matt Shoemaker - R 4-1 W
Jul 25, 2020 away Twins Randy Dobnak - R White Sox Dallas Keuchel - L 3-10 L
Jul 26, 2020 home Cardinals Dakota Hudson - R Pirates Mitch Keller - R 1-5 L
Jul 26, 2020 home Cubs Tyler Chatwood - R Brewers Freddy Peralta - R 9-1 W
Jul 26, 2020 away Yankees Jonathan Loaisiga - R Nationals Patrick Corbin - L 3-2 W
Jul 26, 2020 home Padres Garrett Richards - R Diamondbacks Zac Gallen - R 3-4 L
Jul 26, 2020 home Rangers Corey Kluber - R Rockies Kyle Freeland - L 2-5 L
Jul 27, 2020 home Athletics Chris Bassitt - R Angels Griffin Canning - R 3-0 W
Jul 27, 2020 home Nationals Anibal Sanchez - R Blue Jays Trent Thornton - R 1-4 L
Jul 27, 2020 home Padres Joey Lucchesi - L Diamondbacks Luke Weaver - R 6-2 W
Jul 27, 2020 home Rays Tyler Glasnow - R Braves Mike Foltynewicz - R 14-5 W
Jul 27, 2020 away Mets Michael Wacha - R Red Sox Josh Osich - L 7-4 W
Jul 27, 2020 away Cubs Jon Lester - L Reds Wade Miley - L 8-7 W
Jul 27, 2020 home Tigers Michael Fulmer - R Royals Mike Montgomery - L 6-14 L
Jul 28, 2020 away Dodgers Walker Buehler - R Astros Framber Valdez - L 5-2 W
Jul 28, 2020 away Padres Zach Davies - R Giants Jeff Samardzija - R 5-3 W
Jul 28, 2020 home Indians Aaron Civale - R White Sox Dylan Cease - R 4-3 W
Jul 28, 2020 home Indians Adam Plutko - R White Sox Carlos Rodon - L 5-3 W
Jul 28, 2020 home Nationals Austin Voth - R Blue Jays Tanner Roark - R 1-5 L
Jul 28, 2020 home Rays Yonny Chirinos - R Braves Kyle Wright - R 5-2 W
Jul 28, 2020 away Mets David Peterson - L Red Sox Matt Hall - L 8-3 W
Jul 28, 2020 home Reds Tyler Mahle - R Cubs Alec Mills - R 5-8 L
Jul 28, 2020 home Tigers Rony Garcia - R Royals Kyle Zimmer - R 4-3 W
Jul 28, 2020 home Twins Homer Bailey - R Cardinals Carlos Martinez - R 6-3 W
Jul 29, 2020 away Dodgers Dustin May - R Astros Cristian Javier - R 4-2 W
Jul 29, 2020 home Athletics Frankie Montas - R Rockies German Marquez - R 1-5 L
Jul 29, 2020 home Braves Mike Soroka - R Rays Charlie Morton - R 7-4 W
Jul 29, 2020 away White Sox Lucas Giolito - R Indians Zach Plesac - R 4-0 W
Jul 29, 2020 away Brewers Brandon Woodruff - R Pirates Joe Musgrove - R 3-0 W
Jul 29, 2020 home Rangers Lance Lynn - R Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner - L 7-4 W
Jul 29, 2020 home Reds Sonny Gray - R Cubs Kyle Hendricks - R 12-7 W
Jul 29, 2020 home Tigers Matthew Boyd - L Royals Danny Duffy - L 5-4 W
Jul 30, 2020 home Blue Jays Hyun Jin Ryu - L Nationals Erick Fedde - R 4-6 L
Jul 30, 2020 home Braves Max Fried - L Rays Ryan Yarbrough - L 2-1 W
Jul 30, 2020 away Dodgers Ross Stripling - R Diamondbacks Robbie Ray - L 6-3 W
Jul 30, 2020 home Mets Steven Matz - L Red Sox Martin Perez - L 2-4 L
Jul 30, 2020 away Royals Brady Singer - R Tigers Ivan Nova - R 5-3 W
Jul 30, 2020 home Twins Jose Berrios - R Indians Shane Bieber - R 0-2 L

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