FairwayJay continues his College Football Underdog Picks and Plays, now 9-3 ATS the last three weeks and 10-6 ATS this season selecting only underdogs. Follow along as Fairway fires for the flag and more green in pursuit of profit.
Identifying NFL Underdogs and Parlays for Profit
A 2-2 week dropped our record to 9-3 ATS the last 3 weeks in college football. We just missed a huge +1300 big ‘Dog Money Line winner last week when Syracuse (+25.5) lost in the final minute to No. 3 Clemson, 27-23. We did chip-in another outright underdog winner on Northern Illinois (+3.5), and a late night game in Tucson saw our Arizona side getting trounced by USC into the second half before the Wildcats rallied to cut the margin to 24-20 in the final 90 seconds. Problem is, Arizona (+3.5) kicker missed the PAT kick to cost ‘Dog bettors in defeat.
We continue our risk vs. reward and search for value with both competitively-priced live underdogs and big ‘Dogs like Syracuse last week in our weekly pursuit of profit.
As power ratings, performances and perceptions continue to change and the sportsbooks make adjustments in price, we too modify our game plan and make changes as needed noting motivational and letdown situations and statistical parameters and profiles that point us in the right direction.
Two weeks ago we had a 4-0 ATS sweep, and parlay players had to like the added cash and bonus. Let’s continue our pursuit of profit in Fairway’s Foursome as we fire for the flag and go for the green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.
Bet college football underdogs at Elite-Rated reduced juice sportsbook 5Dimes.
This week’s underdog plays – we chip-in a bonus play as our Foursome expands to 5 this week. Shop lines at the leading online sportsbooks.
334 Florida (+3) vs LSU – Gators Money Line +125
335 Missouri (+1) at South Carolina – Tigers Money Line +100
350 Virginia Tech (+6.5) vs Notre Dame – Hokies Money Line +210
366 Nevada (+14) vs Fresno State – Wolf Pack Money Line +440
407 Florida State (+14) at Miami – Seminoles Money Line +400
$20 4-Team Parlay = $220
$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $1375 (pick one of the double-digit ‘Dogs)
A 5-team $20 Money Line Parlay returns $7,513
LSU at Florida – The pressure starts to mount for undefeated 5-0 teams as they try to maintain their strong play and record. But we’ll play against a pair of those unbeaten teams this week and the Swamp is a good place to start. LSU is 5-0 and overachieving. While credit is due and its defensive front has delivered and slowed opponents running attack (112/game), we note the Gators (4-1) defense is improving under new coach Dan Mullin and it showed in last week’s 13-6 win against Mullin’s former team Mississippi State. The Gators loss at home to Kentucky does not look so bad now, and the sun will be shining on Florida Saturday after they tame the Tigers in a defensive dual.
Missouri at South Carolina – I was rising with the ‘Cocks in the early season, and its offense was teasing us. But not as confident in its new, inexperienced offensive coordinator calling the shots. For sure not in this match-up against an explosive Missouri offense. The ‘Cocks offense went limp in losses to Georgia and Kentucky scoring a combined 27 points in defeat, and the Tigers and top QB Drew Lock will hold nothing back with its 40 PPG and 540 yard offense remembering they were whipped by SC as a home favorite last year. I do expect South Carolina to score and for this game to surpass the 63-point total, as 1,000 total yards combined offense is a real possibility. But as long as Missouri doesn’t give the ball away like it did against Georgia, then the Tigers get their redemption in a high-scoring victory.
Notre Dame at Virginia Tech – Did you know that prime time TV Saturday night ‘Dogs are 7-0 SU/ATS this season? Virginia Tech (+7) has one of those wins 24-3 over Florida State. So does Notre Dame (+1) over Michigan 24-17, and that was without new starting QB Ian Book. The Irish enter off a dominant 38-17 win over Stanford last week and Book passed for 4 TD’s and now the Irish are up to No. 6 in the country with its perfect 5-0 record intact. But how can we not take the value knowing the Hokies would have been favored at the start of the season but are still paying the price for the embarrassing lost to Old Dominion as a 4 TD favorite? The polls need not matter, but we still note that Virginia Tech is in the top-25 after falling from the top-15 two weeks ago. What does matter is that the Hokies allow just 100 rushing YPG to rank top-12 in the country, and that Va. Tech’s impressive 31-14 win at Duke last week showed its strength. It also showed it has a solid veteran, backup quarterback, as replacement QB Ryan Willis passed for 333 yards and 3 TDs in victory that was no fluke at Duke. Virginia Tech coaching legend Frank Beamer has a statue unveiled Saturday night, adding to an already electric environment in Blacksburg for another prime time ‘Dog to deliver.
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Fresno State at Nevada – Coach Jeff Tedford continues to build the Bulldogs into a force, and he’s doing it with the best scoring defense in the Mountain West thus far. Tedford and his staff prepare very well, and improved play and wins the past two seasons have followed. Fresno State had not played against any offense of substance however until last week when the Bulldogs trounced Toledo 49-27 following its bye week. The return of running back Ronnie Rivers last week adds to its backfield depth, and the Bulldog’s strength has been its offensive line despite three new starters. Now Fresno State travels to the altitude in Reno for its conference opener where a pack of Wolves is waiting with an improved run defense and the nation’s No. 4 tackles for loss team. Nevada won at Air Force last week, slowing the Falcons option attack with its tricky 3-3-5 defensive scheme and rolling up a 436-250 yards edge to get the deserved 28-25 road win. Nevada even allowed a 100-yard pick-6. But sharp bettors knew Nevada was the side to support, driving the number down to +3.5 from 6.5 at kickoff, and the Wolf Pack delivered. Now they are a disrespected home ‘Dog and many see that Nevada was trounced by Toledo the week prior 63-44. What most don’t see or care to research is that Nevada out-gained Toledo 582-460 and the Pack rushed for 262 yards at 7.5 yard per pop. Nevada has a 38 PPG and 500 yard offense, and enough firepower to support as a big home ‘Dog against this invader.
Florida State at Miami – Rare big ‘Dog role for FSU in a rivalry that has seen the margin of victory no more than 5 points the last four years. Florida State was not sharp in last week’s fortunate 28-24 win (no cover) at Louisville, and a net -2 turnover margin didn’t help. We had FSU, but we also had Miami in their 47-10 win over North Carolina Thursday. A closer inspection shows 6 Tar Heel turnovers with three turned into quick touchdowns. The ‘Canes did rush for 229 in victory, but only outgained NC 354-329 in a misleading final score. I don’t doubt that Miami is stronger along the line of scrimmage, and the ‘Canes penetration and pressure has led them to a nation-best 60 tackles for loss. Pressure on Seminoles QB Francois is always a concern, as his decisions can be damaging. But the ‘Noles will try to run more to minimize pressure and utilize its solid run defense (114/game) to keep this contest closer than expected. Recall FSU outrushed Miami last year 203-83 in a 24-20 Miami win. Big rivalry ‘Dog gets our attention.
Best wishes in Week 6 college football.
FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay