Betting tips and Underdog Picks for NFL Week 13
We closed November with a 2-0 result that included two ugly underdogs. Cincinnati (0-11) remains winless, but covered in defeat, as the offense remains a mess scoring 17 or less points in six straight games. The Bengals will reinsert QB Andy Dalton back into the starting lineup this week to give the team a better chance to snap the losing skip and avoid a winless season. Cincinnati happens to play the Jets this week, and we cashed in on New York last week as a home underdog with a rout of the Raiders 34-3. The month of November was one to forget on these pages, and our season record is now 18-19 selecting only underdogs and 69-46 (60%) the past 2+ years.
Week 13 has some major match-ups between top teams including Monday night where we will look for a victory from the Vikings at Seattle. The red hot Ravens (9-2) shoot for their 8th straight win behind MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. A 5-0 ATS run has seen Baltimore average 40 points per game. But in the Ravens way this week is the NFL's No. 1 defense of the San Francisco 49ers (10-1), who are clinging to just a one-game lead over Seattle in the NFC West.
On to December and Week 13 with more storylines and market moves as teams push towards the playoffs.
NFL Week 13 - Sunday, Nov. 30
455 San Francisco (+6) at Baltimore - 49ers Moneyline +230
457 Tennessee (+1.5) at Indianapolis - Titans Moneyline +100
468 Arizona (+3) vs LA Rams - Cardinals Moneyline +125
475 Minnesota (+3) at Seattle - Vikings Moneyline +125
The 49ers (10-1) have the league's best defense with the speed and edge rushers to get after and contain QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens (9-2) are on a record-setting roll covering the point spread by at least 17 points in each of their last five games with an average cover of more than 25 PPG. Jackson leads the league's No. 1 rushing attack (210/game) with RB Mark Ingram, and this game in chilly conditions is a tough challenge for both teams. The Ravens stock is through the roof, and it's difficult to go against them as they exceed expectations and bookmaker projections. The clock will likely be ticking as both teams assert their will and try to control the line of scrimmage with their strong running games. Two premier coaches and legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but we'll take a touchdown and the best price at BookMaker and back San Fran.
The best line is gone on the Titans (6-5) as we provide these picks and analysis late in the week. But Tennessee is on a roll winning three of their last four games as the offense has come to life averaging 424 yards per game over their last three contests to rank No. 2 in the league behind the Ravens in that stretch. The Titans ground game is pounding away with Derek Henry, who has rushed for 188 and 159 yards the past two games with four touchdowns and a 8.3 yards per rush average. The Colts (6-5) are clinging to their playoff hopes and both RB Marlon Mack and WR T.Y. Hilton are out again this week as Indianapolis tries to sweep the Titans after taking down Tennessee 19-17 in Week 2. But that was when Marcus Mariota was quarterback, and now the Titans have a productive and capable passer in Ryan Tannehill leading the offense. In the Colts last three home games, they escaped with a last second field goal over Denver 15-13, beaten by the dead fish Dolphins 16-12 and ran over the fading Jaguars 33-13. We had Tennessee as a big play last week as favorite, and see the Titans winning this rematch and continuing their push towards the playoffs.
The Rams (6-5) are fading fast and could well get the dagger this week at Arizona (3-7). The defending NFC champs enter off an embarrassing blowout loss at home to the Ravens. The 45-6 final was further evidence of the offensive line issues and the continued struggles of QB Jared Goff, who failed to throw a touchdown pass in the month of November. His 11 TD and 12 INT season is only part of his piss poor performance, as the Rams offense is stuck in the mud scoring 6, 17 and 12 points in their last three games. Sure those were against better defenses and the Cardinals are allowing 6.1 yards per play to rank No. 30 in the league. But Arizona plays the struggling Rams at the right time with the Cardinals off a bye and QB Kyler Murray likely given more rope to continue his progression in a solid rookie season. Murray has thrown 7 touchdown with just one interception the past three games with two of those spread-covering defeats against San Francisco and the 49er's No. 1 defense. The Cardinals scored 25 and 26 points in those losses to the 49er's, who were playing on short weeks and now the Rams are in that role off their Monday night mauling by the Ravens. Murray's ability to scamper and extend plays moving from the pocket will prove to be effective against a Rams team that won't offer as much resistance and has been roasted by athletic and mobile quarterbacks in Tampa Bay (55 points), Seattle (30) and Baltimore (45) - the three highest scoring teams against the Rams this season. Looks like a high-scoring Cardinals victory.
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Big game in the NFC, as the Vikings (8-3) and Seahawks (9-2) are both going to the playoffs and still pushing for division titles trailing the Packers (8-3, tiebreaker GB) and 49ers (10-1). Minnesota is off its bye week, and the Vikings have the stronger defense and better offense with more skill position talent. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson, who is playing quarterback at an MVP level and carrying the team as the defense allows 5.8 yards per play and 24 points per game - the worst of any team currently qualifying for the playoffs. Fortunate home wins over the Rams (late missed LA field goal) and Buccaneers (overtime) along with home losses to similar strength teams of the Vikings in the Ravens and Saints makes Minnesota a worthy wager. This line will drop by kickoff as the Vikings are the better team in a favorable position to show their strength against Seattle. A victory for the Vikings and another moneyline wager with a projected win with fewer turnovers, penalties and no refs causing hazards.
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FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay