Fairway's Football Forecast - NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks And Insights

FairwayJay is off a 4-1 Week and has more Week 16 Underdog Picks and Insights looking to add to his 76-50 ATS (60%) 'Dog log over the past three seasons.

Betting Tips and Underdog Picks for NFL Week 16 

Our December underdog picks are now 7-4 ATS following last week's 4-1 result that included three outright underdog winners. That gets us back in the black at 25-23 ATS this season selecting only underdogs. Not up to par like last season's 35-19 'Dog log that included a 6-0 ATS finish the final three weeks. But a 4-1 week to start the final three weeks is a good start. Let's keep firing for the flag in pursuit of profit and green in Week 16 with some big games and match-ups drawing major money at the leading online sportsbooks, First place on the line in key match-ups in the AFC East, NFC East and NFC North.

Over the past three seasons posting underdog picks on these pages, the record now stands at 76-50 ATS (60%). 

For added insight and information on this year's betting results and teams that are powering their way to profits and success in the running game, read my recent Inside the Numbers article. Hopefully you'll gain more insight into NFL handicapping and betting, and add additional arsenal to your game to learn as you earn. 

NFL Week 16 - Dec 22-23 

453 Buffalo (+6.5 or 7) at New England - Bills Moneyline +245
464 Tennessee (+2.5 or 3 at -125) vs. New Orleans - Titans Moneyline +120
469 Cincinnati (PK) at Miami - Bengals Moneyline -115
474 Cleveland (+10) vs Baltimore - Browns Moneyline +360

Buffalo at New England 

We've been riding the Bills (10-4) quite often this season including in their 16-10 Week 4 loss (but cover) against these Patriots (11-3) when QB Josh Allen tossed three interceptions and the Patriots returned a blocked punt for a touchdown. Allen completed just 46% of his passes against the Patriots in that defeat, and he's also completing just 46% of his passes the last two weeks including in last week's win at Pittsburgh when we cashed in again on the Bills. The UNDER is down to 37 and taking lots of action and we agree, as the Patriots and Bills scoring defenses rank 1-2 allowing less than 16 points per game. New England will also be playing without CB Jonathan Jones (groin), who is ruled out with other players remaining questionable on the Patriots defense that leads the league in interceptions. Both teams offenses are inefficient with poor passing production. Pressure is more problematic for QB Allen, but we still back the Bills with 5Dimes dealing +7. 

New Orleans at Tennessee 

Titans free pickCheck the result of the Houston/Tampa Bay game Saturday as this line could move including downward. The Titans offense can take advantage of Saints secondary and injuries, and a short week for New Orleans following perhaps their best game of the season in a 34-7 Monday night win over Indianapolis. It was an emotional win also, as Drew Brees set more passing records with 4 TD's to become the all-time NFL record-holder for passing touchdowns, and he also completed 29-of-30 passes. Tennessee may go more up-tempo in this match-up than their 15% of offensive plays under QB Tannehill as the Saints run defense is stout allowing 90 rushing YPG. The Titans should bring their best in a last home game with a win also needed to keep their playoff and division title hopes alive with next week's game at Houston on deck. 

Cincinnati at Miami 

In a bottom of the barrel battle of bad teams, we back the Bengals (1-13), who can still beat Miami (3-11) and get the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL draft. Both teams are dreadful on defense allowing 391 and 398 Bengals Dolphins free pickYPG, but it's the Dolphins who have been fried fish the past three games allowing 390 YPG to just 293 for the Bengals with renewed confidence on offense despite QB Dalton's 4 INT's last week against the Patriots No. 1 defense. Miami is dead last in the league in rushing (71 YPG) while the Bengals ground game has come to life rushing for 179 and 164 yards the past two games led by Joe Mixon. No such issues moving the ball or scoring this week against the Dolphins deficient defense that is also missing key run stopper and linebacker McMillan. Note too the NFL weather calls for 15 MPH winds, overcast skies and a 30+% chance of rain to only aid the Bengals edge in the running game with passing potentially more difficult. Little fan interest in this game, but more betting than expected as sharp money is starting to side with the Bengals with Cincinnati starting to show as the favorite (-1) at some online sportsbooks.  

Baltimore at Cleveland 

Cleveland Baltimore Free PickOnly the Chiefs are taking more spread bets than the Ravens as tracked by Sports Insights and it's consensus data from seven leading online sportsbooks that includes BookMaker and 5Dimes. The Ravens (13-2) have been playing at a elite level for more than two months while winning 10 straight games. Baltimore's last loss was in September to the under-performing Browns (6-8). A look inside the numbers shows the Ravens with the league's best rushing attack at 202 YPG at 5.5 YPR on a league-high 36 rushing attempts per game. League MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson has figures to have more success with RB Mark Ingram against a Browns defensive front that is shorthanded (Miles Garrett) and has allowed 176 rushing YPG over it's last three contests. Nick Chubb leads a Browns rushing attack that is No. 2 behind the Ravens in yards per rush (5.0). The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and many see the Browns having quit on their lame duck coach. Last week's dreadful defensive performance at Arizona allowing 445 balanced yards (226 rushing) was a disgrace. But we projected correctly with the deficient defense and that's why we're playing the OVER again this week after cashing big on the Browns/Cardinals game OVER last week. I see some value on a home 'Dog ready to give one final strong effort on their home field against a big division rival.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay

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