A look at five 'dogs for Week 4 of the NFL season
A 1-1 week runs the NFL record on these pages to 7-3 ATS selecting underdogs only. We left a few winners on the sidelines last week as mentioned in our Week 3 analysis. No regret (other than a winner) on the Steelers, who were out-played and fortunate to cover as our handicap played out and we passed. Pittsburgh was out-rushed 168-79 and the 49ers ran the ball 40 times to just 22 rushes for the Steelers. Those type of stats will get you the money better than 85% of the time, especially when the Steelers only have 11 first downs, 239 yards and run 51 plays to 69 for the 49ers. San Francisco won 24-20 but failed to cover (-6.5). FIVE 49ers turnovers and a negative (-3) turnover differential was the reason, and frankly to win the game with those turnover numbers is pretty rare too.
We lost the best line on the Lions having bet them earlier, and I don't want to provide the worst of it on Friday's. We'll reevaluate that, and try to get some of our plays out earlier and perhaps some of the analysis to follow. We were extremely fortunate to get the Jets in as an ATS winner following their pathetic performance and just 6 first downs and 105 total yards offense at 2.2 yards per play in a 30-16 loss at New England. The Patriots are now 3-0 with their opponents a combined 0-9 (PIT, MIA, NYJ). Concern playing the Jets was new rookie QB Luke Falk, who was among eight backups who started last week, and that's part of the process in evaluation. We were a bit unlucky on the Browns, who closed +4 and had first and goal at the Rams 5-yard line down 20-13 in the closing minute but failed (to run the ball even once) in a 7-point discouraging defeat.
More market moves in Week 4, so try to get the best numbers at the leading online sportsbooks.
I'll have a weekly 'recency report' with current week market moves and the NFL Week 5 look ahead lines soon. I hope this information helps you in your pursuit of profit, as I try to provide added insights beyond just the picks.
If you like tracking NFL odds and percentages of bets on teams each week from a consensus of 7 leading online sportsbooks that includes BookMaker and 5Dimes along with BetOnline, then check out Sports Insights Live NFL odds and betting data on spreads, money lines and totals for Week 4.
Over the past 2+ seasons, our NFL record on these pages is 58-30 ATS (66%) including 39 outright underdog winners. Let's keep it going with this week's plays. Shop lines at the leading online sportsbooks.
We won't hold back this week with so many 'Dogs of interest. Week 4 bye teams are the 49ers and Jets, and teams playing this week that have a bye next week are the Lions and Dolphins.
NFL Week 5 Underdog Picks
253 Cleveland (+7) at Baltimore – Browns Money Line +260
258 Miami (+16) vs LA Chargers - Dolphins Money Line +750
262 Detroit (+6.5) vs Kansas City - Lions Money Line +260
264 Buffalo (+7) vs New England - Bills Money Line +280
271 Minnesota (+2.5) at Chicago - Vikings Money Line +120
Analysis to follow, and still evaluating more including the Saints (+2.5) at home vs. Dallas. More injury reports to sort through as well, along with stats. For the record, teams that out-rushed their opponent by at least 30 yards had a rare losing week ATS in Week 3 going 4-7 ATS to run the record to 19-15 ATS this season. I'll sort through more stats and provide a breakdown of the stats and information to use in the weeks ahead on handicapping point of attack play. The Bills (175-67 outrushed Bengals) and 49ers (168-79 outrush Steelers) were two tough losers last week when you factor in the number or rushing attempts and domination overall. Yet key turnovers were an issue despite those two teams having the biggest time of possession advantages last week and statistical edges across the board.
You can follow the live odds and betting activity at Sports Insights, where more than 80% of the bets on are the Patriots and Chiefs thus far from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks.
FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay