Sports betting news and underdog picks for NFL Week 11
The Week 11 schedule has seven division games and the Week 12 lookahead lines show 10 division games including three on Thanksgiving and another on Friday. The boring games in Germany are over, and the prime time games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights are 9-0 'under' the total the last three weeks and 26-7 this season.
A losing Week 10 included a 1-2 result with another tough loss as the pathetic Patriots blew all chances in a 10-6 loss to the Colts in Germany. The Patriots were one of just two teams that lost SU while outrushing their opponents by at least 30 yards, and in this case, Patriots 167 yards rushing to Colts 70. Those teams that out-rushed their opponent by at least 30 yards went 11-2 SU and 8-3-2 ATS and are now winning at a 76% rate and and also covering the spread at a 76% ATS rate this season on nearly 100 games where the opponent out-rushes the opponent by at least 30 yards. Also, teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game are winning 82% of those games and covering the spread at an 85% clip - the Patriots did that too with 34 carries for 167 yards in a ridiculous 10-6 SU/ATS loss.
For the season, underdogs are winning just 45% ATS, following last weeks 7-5-2 ATS results.
Our NFL underdog picks are now 13-18 ATS this season, and 175-135 ATS (56.5%) the past 6+ seasons posting at OSGA. You can see how quickly a bad week or two can impact the winning percentage, as our 58% history into this season is going down sharply, and the 70% season of 2021 is a thing of the past with the what have you done for me lately ringing through.
On to the Week 11 Underdog Picks, as we note the continued quarterback changes, mostly sub-par quarterback play and a record number of rookies starting at quarterback and seeing action.
NFL Week 11 Odds
Here are the Week 11 spreads from BetOnline, which are subject to change. The weekly betting data that may follow later will mostly support the favorites, which of course we prefer to fade more often than not.
NFL Week 11— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) November 13, 2023
CIN +3.5 @ BAL (44.5)
PIT +4 @ CLE (37.5)
AZ +5.5 @ HOU (49)
LAC -3.5 @ GB (44)
NYG +10 @ WSH (37)
TEN +6.5 @ JAX (40)
CHI +9.5 @ DET (47)
DAL -11 @ CAR (41.5)
TB +10.5 @ SF (41)
SEA -2.5 @ LAR (44.5)
PHI +2.5 @ KC (47.5)
NFL Week 11 Underdog Opinions and Considerations
We'll handicap and research more into Friday before posting our final underdog picks, analysis and any additional information you can bet on in what looks like a lighter week. More double-digit spreads, but not enough interest in the big underdogs with more rookie QB's and plenty playing poorly.
New York Jets (+7) at Buffalo
Minnesota (+2.5) at Denver
Philadelphia (+2.5) at Kansas City
NFL Week 11 injury reports
Other early notes on some games and matchups. My projections have the Ravens bouncing back with a big ground game and pretty significant edge, so I won't bet the underdog Bengals despite preference of QB Joe Burrow in the 'Dog role. Recall, the Bengals won at San Francisco, but I'll need more reasons to bet against the rushing edge, which if it plays out, covers the point spread at a better than 75% rate.
I'm betting the Browns as favorite, and no way the fraud that is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have been out-gained in every game this season, but are somehow 6-3 SU/ATS. But note, seven of the Steelers games have gone under the total. Pittsburgh's offense averages 283 yards per game at 4.8 yards per play - both bottom six in the league.
Taking +4 with Arizona at Houston is not enough, even with Kyler Murray back at quarterback. The Cardinals (2-8) have lost four road games by double digits, and Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud is playing like a top-10 quarterback. I would bet AZ/HOU over the total. Green Bay (+3) will be bet by more pros, who took +3.5, but not this one. It's simply Justin Herbert vs. Jordon Love in the QB competition. No thanks even for the home 'Dog Packers at colder Lambeau with a warm weather team traveling off a difficult loss and sub-par defense.
The Titans let us down this week, and while we may consider at Jacksonville, it will take more digging, including into injuries and game plans. Rookie QB Will Levis was under constant pressure and sacks last week at Tampa Bay, and the Titans only managed 209 yards, including 42 rushing. More teams will bring extra rushers and pressure until the offensive line helps the young rookie quarterback. No thanks to the Bears (2-8) with their clueless QB's, but now improving defense and taking +10 at Detroit. Note the Lions (7-2) have racked up at least 325 yards in every game this season and had 200 rushing yards and 533 total yards offense at 8.3 yards per play last week in the 41-38 shootout win over the Chargers.
Maybe the Raiders now up to +13 at Miami, who is off a bye. But the Raiders rookie QB Aidan O'Connell does have some weapons, but needs more protection and checking T Kolton Miller's status along with other defenders and matchups. Baker Mayfield is the only decent and proven QB on teams taking +6.5 points or more this week when the Buccaneers travel to the Bay area to tackle mighty San Francisco, who demolished the Jaguars with the 49ers defense showing its dominance off a bye.
Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 11 Underdog Picks
Cleveland (-1) vs. Pittsburgh - Browns Moneyline -112
Minnesota (+2.5) at Denver - Vikings Moneyline +120
Los Angeles (+1) vs. Seattle - Rams Moneyline -105
Check back this weekend for any additions for underdog picks.
Minnesota at Denver - The Vikings (6-4) are the hottest team with 5 straight wins and biggest money maker with five straight covers. Minnesota has won four straight road games against sub-par teams, which is what Denver (4-5) is, despite three straight wins, including their fluky 24-22 Monday night win that was a result of four Bills turnovers and a 4-1 turnover differential. Buffalo also had a huge 7.1 to 4.2 yards per play edge with the Broncos playing off a bye. So while the Mile High might be a tricky spot for the purple people, the Vikings are the better team even with a backup QB and the Broncos are on on a short week. Sure the Broncos beat the Chiefs on this field in Week 8, and once again were gifted five turnovers by KC. If we knew how those turnovers would work out, we would surely be winning more as well. Key numbers show the Vikings with a +1.8 yards per play differential, and the Broncos with the league's worst (but improving) defense allowing 402 yards per game with the Vikings 79 YPG less and 7 points per game less allowed as well. Take the Vikings at +3 if it gets there Sunday, but of course add some moneyline bets as well knowing that 70% of all NFL games this season have been within one score in the fourth quarter (USA Today report). This one may well be also, making the 'Dog the percentage play.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland - With few underdogs of interest this week, we'll play the Browns (-1) at the reduced price now that dingbat QB Deshawn Watson (shoulder) is out for the year. This had reached pk 'em after sitting at Browns -4 before the Watson injury news. That leaves Bishop Gorman HS (Las Vegas) & former UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson to guide the Browns offense. Of course some concerns about that, but the Browns boast the league's No. 1 defense allowing 243 yards per game at just 4.5 yards per play. That's +1.5 YPPL better than the Steelers defense. Note that the poorly coordinated Steelers offense and bad play-calling is averaging just 4.8 yards per play and 283 yards per game - 50 yards less than the Browns. Perhaps that's why the Steelers have been out-gained in every game this season, yet are somehow 6-3 in the rugged AFC North. They are also 2-7 over/under, and how the heck are the Steelers going to move the ball on the Browns defensive dominators that just held the Ravens to 306 yards offense in Baltimore? The Browns also rushed for 178 yards on 36 carries last week against a better Ravens run defense that the Steelers. Letdown for the Browns off that big effort comeback win? I don't think so, not against what should be the worst division opponent back home. Cleveland is priced like an underdog factoring in home field, and we'll play our second such team this season as a favorite of 2-points or less and priced as the lesser team at home.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.