Sports betting news and underdog picks for NFL Week 13
The NFL Week 13 schedule includes just two division games. The headliner is the showdown in Philadelphia between the NFC co-favorites Eagles (10-1) and 49ers (8-3) with San Francisco (-3) a road favorite. It's the first time in modern NFL history (other than a Week 17 game with starters resting) that a team with a record of 10-1 or better is a home underdog this late in the season.
Despite the Eagles (10-1) league best record, we are not planning on including Philly as a Week 13 underdog pick. We come off our worst week ever in posting underdog picks at OSGA. A 1-6 ATS result in Week 12 included the brutal Sunday Night Football loss on the Chargers (+3.5) with the Ravens late TD trying to run out the clock that turned into a 37-yard touchdown run in a 20-10 road win.
My mentions of the continued terrible quarterback play across the league continued and we took it in the A-- picking four teams with rookie or backup quarterbacks, and all lost. My bad I guess, although the Raiders (+9) blew a 14-0 lead and outrushed the Chiefs by margin and were dead even in total yards with no turnovers, yet still managed to lose by 14 points.
The Sunday and Monday contests are now 14-0 'under' the total the last seven weeks and 29-7 this season. The bumbling quarterbacks in Chicago and Minnesota gave us another display of how not to play the position in the Bears 12-10 last second win over the Vikings Monday night. For the season, Monday Night Football totals are now 14-1 UNDER the game total.
This week I do believe we'll get a game total 'over' on Sunday night between the Chiefs and Packers in Green Bay. Our only saving grace last week was betting 'over' the total in the Bills-Eagles game that I highlighted in Forbes. Philadelphia pulled out another game following a 59 yard field goal at the gun to send the game to overtime where the Eagles won 37-34.
As teams push for the playoffs, we try to rally like those losing teams hoping to make a playoff push. Our NFL underdog picks are now 17-24 ATS this season for our worst year posting at OSGA just two seasons after posting a record 70% season in 2021. The 6+ year record of posting only NFL underdog picks is now 179-141 ATS (56%). That's very good over a near 7-year run, but clearly a disappointing season so far and looking for a bounce and correction over the final closing stretch of the season.
NFL Bettors feast over Thanksgiving and knock the stuffing out of the bookmakers
For the season, NFL underdogs are winning less than 45%% ATS.
NFL Week 13 Odds
Here are the Week 13 spreads from BetOnline, which are subject to change. The weekly betting data is more often heavily supported on favorites, which of course is the case again this week with early betting data supporting the Cowboys, Lions, Dolphins, Chargers, Falcons and Chiefs.
Betting on the favorites paid off big for most sports bettors in Week 12 with favorites going 12-4 SU and ATS on closing lines.
Early NFL WK 13 tix:— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) November 28, 2023
74% DAL -9 v SEA
72% LAC -6 @ NE
82% DET -4 @ NO
72% ATL -2.5 @ NYJ
51% AZ +5.5 @ PIT
66% TB -5.5 v CAR
67% IND -2 @ TN
70% MIA -9.5 @ WSH
52% DEN +3.5 @ HOU
59% SF -3 @ PHI
53% CLE +3.5 @ LAR
67% KC -6.5 @ GB
65% JAX -8.5 v CIN
I'll be reviewing more stats and injury reports before posting additional official Fairway Forecasts and underdog picks on Friday. However, we're going to take Green Bay at the best number now for the Sunday Night Football matchup vs. Kansas City. That proved beneficital last week getting the Bills at the best number to cover as money poured in on Buffalo and the line dropped by game day. Here are initial games and teams in consideration.
NFL Week 13 Underdog Opinions and Considerations
New Orleans (+4 / 4.5) vs. Detroit
New York Jets (+2.5 / 3) vs. Atlanta
Denver (+3.5) at Houston
Green Bay (+6 / 6.5) vs. Kansas City
Keep in mind, the Jets and their pathetic QB's are rushing the ball just 20.5 times per game (avg) to rank No. 31 in the league, including 16.3 times per game over their last three contests. The Falcons average 32 rushes per game - one of six teams to average 30 rushing attempts per contest. That's a winning ATS formula, so we have to evaluate more before betting on the Jets, which is less likely. But Atlanta laying road points with Desmond Ridder at quarterback (2 more INT's last week on 21 attempts in win) is about as attractive as my crappy underdog picks in November.
The Cleveland Browns have more QB problems beyond clueless rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) this week with equally inept PJ Walker and now potentially turning to off-the-street signing Joe Flacco.
NFL Week 13 injury reports
Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 13 Underdog Picks
Green Bay (+6.5) vs. Kansas City - Packers Moneyline +220
Kansas City at Green Bay - The Packers (5-6) are playing their best football and were sharp in a Thanksgiving Day win on the road over the Detroit Lions. Quarterback Jordan Love looks far more comfortable and confident passing the football and running the offense. The Packers are averaging nearly 400 yards per game over their last three contests (KC 321 last 3). The Chiefs (8-3) come of a misleading score and win over rival Raiders in Las Vegas, and that game followed the 21-17 home loss to the Eagles which saw the Chiefs average just 4.5 yards per play. The Chiefs defense blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, and have the second-highest QB pressure rate. Packers QB Jordan Love has been better and making the proper protection changes at the line of scrimmage with better decision-making, specifically knowing where his outlet is when either the pressure is closing in, or the deep option isn’t available. Recall the Chiefs (should have) also lost at Minnesota in a 27-20 win, lost at Denver 24-9 with turnover troubles and barely beat the Jets on the road 23-20. Bonus points on Green Bay with extra rest and prep for the surging Packers as big home 'Dog. A slight chance of rain and temps in the 30's Sunday night, and we project an 'over' the total contest and potential Packers win.
Check back Friday and this weekend for game analysis and additional underdog picks as we try to pick up the pieces and shoot for profits and payouts. Update: No additional underdog picks for Week 13.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.