Fairway’s Football Forecast: 2023 NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks

Week 12 NFL underdog picks and insights from FairwayJay, with information you can bet on. Insights and free NFL underdog betting report.

Sports betting news and underdog picks for NFL Week 12

The NFL Week 12 schedule is filled with division duels as 10 division contests headline the final weekend of November. That includes three division games on Thanksgiving plus a bonus dessert on Friday. 

The Sunday and Monday nights are 12-0 'under' the total the last six weeks and 27-7 this season following the Broncos 21-20 SNF win over the Vikings (a 'Dog winner for us on MIN), and Eagles 21-17 win over the Chiefs Monday night as one of the most bet MNF games of the season at the leading online sportbsooks. Sunday Night Football games have gone under the total in six straight games from Week 6-11. Monday Night Football totals have gone 13-1 UNDER this season. 

Five Week 11 games were decided by 4 points or less, and we went 3-0 ATS on those, and also included the other team, Eagles, as a consideration. That's pretty good fortune, after a tougher stretch earlier in November when the close calls didn't go our way for our 'Dog log. Our NFL underdog picks are now 16-18 ATS this season, and 178-135 ATS (57%) the past 6+ seasons posting at OSGA, where membership has its benefits with monitoring of the online sportsbooks and notices of bad bet alerts and slow/no pays. It can happen, and you clearly want to get paid when you win, and are advised to enjoy the benefits of reduced juice sportsbooks and financially strong and reputable top online sportsbooks that also offer free play bonuses, cash and contests. 

We turned around an unfilling early November and try to continue this week to knock the stuffing out of the bookmakers, who took massive betting on the Eagles-Chiefs game, where I provided more player props and winners in my coverage in Forbes.

We'll try to catch up to our winning season last year, but of course won't come close to our 70% season of 2021.

For the season, underdogs are winning just 45% ATS, following last weeks 8-6 ATS results, depending on how you graded Texans (-4.5 closed -3.5 and won by 4, and Rams (+1 to -1 to -2 at close and won by 1). Many other close calls with spreads and line moves, which makes getting the better numbers when betting of greater significance. However, I'll point out some SU and ATS records next week for competitively lined NFL games (6 points or less) and show how rarely the point spread comes into play if you just pick the straight up (SU) winner in those more competitvely-priced contests. 

NFL Week 12 Odds 

Here are the Week 12 spreads from BetOnline, which are subject to change. The weekly betting data is usually most often more heavily supported on favorites. Thanksgiving day favorites, and especially bigger ones, have more often won and covered and better in recent years, providing favorite bettors to get fat on turkey day. Since 2010, Thanksgiving day favorites are 31-7 SU and 21-17 ATS, according to BetUS. 

This year's Thanksgiving day games plus Black Friday NFL special all feature favorites of at least 7 points.

NFL Week 12 odds are courtesy of BetUS, who also has a fulfilling Thanksgiving feast bonus. Betting lines are on favorites. 

- Green Bay at Detroit (-7.5), total 47  Thursday
- Washington at Dallas (-12.5), 48.5  Thursday
- San Francisco (-7.5) at Seattle, 44  Thursday
- Miami (-10) at NYJ, 41  Friday
- Jacksonville (-2) at Houston, 48.5
- Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-2.5) 44
- New England (-3) at NYG, 34.5
- Carolina at Tennessee (-3.5) 37
- Pittsburgh (-1) at Cincinnati, 35.5
- New Orleans at Atlanta (PK) 42.5
- LAR at Arizona (PK, 44.5)
- Cleveland at Denver (PK, 35)
- Buffalo at Philadelphia (-3.5, 48.5)
- Kansas City (-9, 43) at Las Vegas
- Baltimore (-3.5, 48) at LAC  Sunday Night
- Chicago at Minnesota (-3.5, 43)  Monday Night

We'll handicap and research more into Friday before posting our final underdog picks for Sunday. Many games of interest with Week 12 underdogs, which includes plenty of appealing teasers as bonus bets to consider and bet again this week. Many of those are on short underdogs below, and the Lions as favorite on Thanksgiving. Those worked well last week with our underdog picks and winners on the Vikings (+2.5) and Rams (+1). I like the Week 12 card much better than Week 11, yet we still managed a 3-0 week. Figuring out the NFL and point spread prognosis has been a little tougher with all the quarterback injuries and changes, and more rookies seeing action. I'm sure many fans anticipated and projected rookie QB Tommy DeVito to lead the Giants to a road win at Washington while completing 18-of-26 passes for 246 yards and 3 TD's without an interception. 

We went after it with a pair of unproven and QB's last week and managed to get the Week 11 ATS wins despite sub-par to bad quarterback play from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (43 passes and less than 4 yards per pass & INT) in a 13-10 Browns win. Then hyped Vikings QB Josh Dobbs fumbled as a runner on the opening possession to lead to a Broncos field goal. He also threw an INT, but the Vikings still out-gained the Broncos 385-285 but lost 21-20 allowing the Broncos only TD in the final minute for a wire-to-wire 'Dog cover ATS.   

NFL Week 12 Underdog Opinions and Considerations 

Seattle (+7.5) vs San Francisco
New York Jets
(+10) vs. Miami 
Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Indianapolis 
Cincinnati (+1.5) vs. Pittsburgh 
New Orleans (Pk/+1) at Atlanta
Cleveland (+1.5) at Denver
Buffalo (+3.5) at Philadelphia
Las Vegas (+9) vs. Kansas City
Los Angeles (+3.5) vs. Baltimore
Chicago (+3.5) at Minnesota 

NFL Week 12 injury reports

Added notes and analysis - Look at the quarterbacks were considering for support, picks and bets this week. Ugh, but that was somewhat the situation last week when we went 3-0 ATS. The Jets (finally) benched QB Zach Wilson, and he's moved to third string. Veteran QB Tim Boyle will start for the Jets on Friday vs. the Dolphins, and Trevor Simien will be the backup quarterback. The line moved from Dolphins -7.5 Sunday to -10 Monday with the announcement. It's now -9.5 Wednesday and many online sportsbooks, but select sportsbooks still have +10 including BetUS.  

Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield is the best of the bunch on teams we're considering with spreads below 3 points above. Others are now Jake Browning (Bengals) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Browns), who was pretty crappy last week in the Browns 13-10 winner for us over Steelers. Derek Carr (concussion) of the Saints did practice Wednesday and likely plays. Going against the Falcons with clueless QB Desmond Ridder is clearly on our radar, as I rate the Saints better. Both the Saints and Falcons are off a bye, and a first place matchup with the Saints (5-5) leading the NFC South ahead of the Falcons (4-6) and Buccaneers (4-6). Did you know the Saints are 2-7-1 ATS and the Falcons 2-8 including an 0-3 SU/ATS run with three straight losses as favorite by 5-points or less.

Washington at Dallas - I thought I would be on Washington for the big rivalry game at Dallas on Thanksgiving. But my rushing numbers don't cut it, despite the Commanders best rushing game last week against the lowly Giants. The Commanders are rushing the ball a league-low 21 times per game on average (tied with Bengals), while Dallas runs the ball an average of 29 times per game. If those stats play out, the Cowboys have a better than 75% chance to cover the spread, even at a big number. The Cowboys defense is also No. 1 in the NFC allowing just 266 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play including a league-low 217 YPG and 3.8 YPPL over their last three games, although two of those games were against clueless QB's and worst teams in the league, Carolina and NY Giants, who just beat Washington thanks to SIX turnovers by the Commanders, who also outrushed the Giants 174-91 but made rookie QB Tommy DeVito look like a near All Pro with 246 passing yards at 9.4 yards per pass and 3 touchdowns. 

San Francisco at Seattle - The Seahawks have injury issues this week including to QB Geno Smith (elbow), who is questionable, and RB Kenneth Walker (oblique), who is out. Geno Smith is likely to play, and check back Thanksgiving day if we upgrade the Seahawks to an official NFL underdog pick. 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks 

New York (+10) vs. Miami - Jets Moneyline +370
Buffalo (+3.5) at Philadelphia - Bills Moneyline +145
Las Vegas (+9) vs. Kansas City - Raiders +320
Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Indianapolis - Buccaneers Moneyline +120
Cincinnati (+2.5) vs. Pittsburgh - Bengals Moneyline +115 (BetMGM)
Cleveland (+1.5) at Denver - Browns Moneyline +105
Los Angeles (+3.5) vs. Baltimore - Chargers Moneyline +145

I should have added New Orleans on Wednesday when Pk or 'Dog, as now Saints are favored on Friday.  

Buffalo at Philadelphia
- we bet & released the Bills at a better number, and the Eagles are now a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia is also 4-0 SU at home this season and those games have averaged 57 points per game. Along with additional stats and ammunition on the Bills-Eagles game and total (rain) in my Week 12 NFL coverage in Forbes, you can follow along and add more profits and payouts in an expected higher scoring interconference game. Bills new offensive coordinator Joe Brady called better plays and the Bills responded last week with their first 30+ point scoring output since Week 4 when they had three in the first four weeks. The Bills are one of five teams that rank top-10 in both offense and defense (total yards), while the Eagles do not despite sporting the best record in the NFL at 9-1. Buffalo's underlying statistical profile indicates it’s still one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Bills have lost five one-score games while also winning four contests by at least 25 points. The Bills have a bye on deck with four games remaining against quality or winning teams, and Buffalo (6-5) figures to bring their very best against the Eagles (9-1) with their playoff hopes in the balance. Teams who upset the Super Bowl champs are also 0-6 ATS in their next game since 2020. 

Kansas City at Las Vegas - Didn't like to hear Raiders star DE Maxx Crosby (knee) now ruled out, which has resulted in more betting on the Chiefs (7-3) and the line up to KC -9.5. The KC-LV and BUF-PHI games are the most bet games of the day at the top online sportsbooks, and we'll hope Raiders rookie QB Aiden O'Connell can limit mistakes and turnovers as the Raiders go balls-out and get the the Chiefs in a tough spot off their Monday Night matchup against the Eagles. The Chiefs offense has failed to score 20 or more points in four or their last five games, and Kansas City now ranks last in the league in the second half, and fourth quarter points per game. Not a good bet to lay big road points, especially in a division game against an improving Raiders (5-6) side since they fired their head coach. 

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis - The Buccaneers are the better team and QB Baker Mayfield has more weapons and is playing better than given credit for. The Colts defense was torn apart in their straight games while dealing with many injuries, but facing the Panthers and Patriots, off a very fortunate 10-6 win, doesn't cure their ails. The Bucs defense can play better than they have shown, although their run defense is one of the better units in the league and can force the Colts (5-5) to be more one dimentional and backup QB Gardner Minshew into some mistakes. The Bucs (4-6) are just one game back of the lead in the NFC South and have the better personnel to beat a weaker Colts team that is just 1-4 at home.

Cleveland at Denver - The Browns (7-3) are also the better team taking points against the Broncos (5-5), who have won four straight games after their fortunate win last week at home over the Vikings. Concerns of course with Browns backup rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting a second-straight week off his sub-par performance last week, but we managed to cash in on the Browns with a Week 11 pick and 3-0 ATS week. The rookie quarterback will hand the ball off more this week against a Broncos defense that is allowing a league-worst 160 rushing yards per game. Hopefully no Mile High meltdown by the bumbling rookie quarterback with a dominant Browns defense to fall back on with Cleveland's stop unit No. 1 DVOA defense allowing just 243 yards per game at 4.5 yards per play including 4.0 YPPL over their last three contests.   

Baltimore at LA Chargers - Sunday Night Football feature and the Ravens (8-3) are the best team in the AFC North and perhaps the AFC with a healthy QB Lamar Jackson and a top-tier defense allowing just 4.2 yards per play. Baltimore and it's duel-QB also run the ball 32 times per game for a league-best 155 yards per game. Usually not interested in fading those key stats with a supporting strong defense. But the Chargers (4-6) are capable despite being the biggest underachiever in pro football. Los Angeles has now lost five games by 3 points or less after blowing the game at Green Bay last week. We'll buy low on the Chargers with the cross country travel for Baltimore and some mistakes and turnovers by Lamar, who has had costly turnovers in two Ravens losses this season. Top QB Justin Herbert can operate a balanced attack this week and he's clearly capable of making big plays in the passing game. 

Check back Friday and this weekend for game analysis and additional underdog picks. I'm most likely to add more picks as I review injury reports and additional stats and matchups. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights. 

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