Super Bowl LVIII picks and props from winning NFL analyst FairwayJay
Betting on Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers has been going on for more than a week. We've seen the online sportsbooks move the betting line from 49ers -1.5 to -2. That despite many leading online sportsbooks reporting more spread bets and money on the Chiefs. Millions of bets and many millions more money will be wagered on Super Bowl LVIII, and especially on the hundreds of game props and player props available.
Record wagering is expected to increase by 44% over last year's Super Bowl with leading offshore sportsbooks and U.S. sportsbooks taking in an estimated $23 billion in Super Bowl bets of all types this year - according to a Super Bowl LVIII report I posted by the American Gaming Association in which I include additional survey reports and information you can bet on for the Big Game.
We cashed in on last year's 2023 Super Bowl side and total with the Chiefs as slight underdog in a 38-35 shootout win over the Eagles. The year prior we had the Rams (-4), and they won but by only 3 points in another down to the wire drama 23-20. One of my best Super Bowl spread bets and picks was the year legalized sports betting became reality in the U.S. and the Eagles beat the Patriots 25-20 as a +4.5 point underdog after building an early 16-0 first quarter lead in the 2018 Super Bowl LII. Of course, I also had one of the all-time greatest 'bad beats' in NFL betting when the Falcons (+3) blew a 28-3 second-half lead the year before in 2017 and lost 34-28 in overtime. Incredible.
So too were some of my best Super Bowl memories and biggest bets in back-to-back years in the late 1990's when I nearly hit an exacta score with the huge underdog Denver Broncos (+11) with QB John Elway beating QB Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers 31-24 in Super Bowl XXXII. The next year 1999 we rode QB John Elway and the Broncos (-7) again to another big Super Bowl win, 34-19 over the Atlanta Falcons, who had upset the record-setting offense of the Minnesota Vikings in dramatic OT fashion in the NFC Championship game. I moved to Las Vegas the following year, got into the sports service business in the early 2000's and started living my dream in sports handicapping and poker.
Opinion: 49ers -2
Pick: Under 47.5
Both the Chiefs and 49ers odds to win the Super Bowl were less than 9/1 at the start of the season. Futures bets are fun, but not the way to win consistently betting mostly openers as the online sportsbooks hold percentage is very high. There are ways to bet futures more profitably during the season as you analyze schedules, injuries, team play and more. Another example this season was the Eagles, who were 10-1 into November and then finished 11-6 and lost as a wild card team in the opening round.
Bettors were all-in on the Eagles as their odds continued to drop to win the NFC and Super Bowl. Find low targets to buy, and sell high. That's what a bettor did on his big Brock Purdy MVP bet. He bet 49ers QB Purdy, $2,000 at 100/1 odds before the 2023 season. He then bought out of his bet and sold it on Prop Swap, an online marketplace that allows users to buy and sell sports betting tickets. He sold it to another user for $125,000 right before the 49ers played the Ravens in Week 16 on Christmas day. The seller got an early Christmas present, while the sucker who bought it was left holding a bag of coal. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens beat the 49ers 33-19 as a TD underdog, and Purdy threw four interceptions. The next day, Purdy went from 2/1 MVP favorite to 19/1 longshot and Lamar Jackson became the prohibitive favorite. All the awards are not yet presented, but Jackson was voted as league MVP by the Pro Football Writers of America in late January.
I'll be adding more prop bets and considerations ahead of Super Bowl LVIII kickoff on Sunday, Feb. 11. So follow along as I chip-in and scramble during a full week of coverage and commitments for the first-ever Super Bowl in Las Vegas, where I have called home for more than 20 years. Recognized that the player props and numbers, yardage can adjust signficantly. Money moves numbers, along with sharper bets from respected bettors. The numbers and yards can also vary fairly significantly at online sportsbooks. In the NFL playoffs divisional round this year, I posted 6 player prop bets in my coverage in Forbes, and went 6-0. Four of those were in the Buccaneers-Lions game, where Bucs QB Baker Mayfield's passing yards props moved sharply from 260.5 to 270.5. Our over bet and pick proved profitable and correct when Mayfield passed for 349 yards and 3 TD's (and 2 INT's) in defeat.
The Super Bowl QB props have adjusted very slightly since I posted an opening odds and betting report for Super Bowl LVIII. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is up slightly to O/U 261.5 passing yards, and 49ers QB Purdy is down slightly to 246.5.
While I still believe the 49ers will win, I have a stronger opinion the game will stay under the game total of 47.5 points with 48 currently showing at select online sportsbooks.
See the Super Bowl LVIII player props and bet considerations and suggestions.
I still believe the 49ers will outrush the Chiefs in yardage and win. Note too that teams that outrush their opponents by any yardage are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in this year's NFL playoffs. One of those SU/ATS losses was when the Bills (our pick) lost to the Chiefs 27-24 despite Buffalo outrushing Kansas City 182-146. Chiefs RB Pacheco had 15 carries for 92 yards, but the Bills controlled the ball and possession for 37 minutes to 23 for the Chiefs. Buffalo also ran the ball 39 times (a proven ATS winning situation) while running 78 plays to 47 for the Chiefs. Kansas City was much more efficient on offense when they had the ball, but the Bills had the game plan to win, and the 49ers will take a similar approach and their many skilled position playmakers will assist QB Brock Purdy in making plays.
Of course Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is the most popular player to bet on and score the first TD and anytime touchdown. Wagering on NFL spiked during the Taylor Swift effect the second half of the season, and leading online sportsbook BetOnline is offering more ways to win with 100+ Taylor Swift props.
While you watch and wager on the Super Bowl and other games this weekend, following the leading online sportsbooks and take advantage of their promotions, contests and coverage. Also, check out my biggest and best sportsbooks in Las Vegas list. I add 2-3 minute videos of the sportsbooks and surrounding scene for Vegas visitors and fans wanting to see what some of the top sportsbooks look like and offer in Las Vegas. I've been invited to some special Super Bowl parties from top companies and sportsbooks in Las Vegas, and will post more of the Super Bowl and parties scene ahead of the Big Game.
Check back as we add more Super Bowl LVIII coverage, picks and prop bets with information you can bet on.
Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting news and insights.