An Early look at the Super Bowl 58 matchup between Kansas City and San Francisco
The Big Game is set for Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. The Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) will tackle the San Francisco 49ers (14-5) in a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl four years ago. The Chiefs won that game rallying from a 20-10 fourth quarter deficit with three TDs in the final 7 minutes to win 31-20. Patrick Mahomes won his first of two Super Bowls and was named MVP. Now Mahomes and the Chiefs are a slight underdog to the 49ers.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) and game total 47.5
The 49ers actually opened -2 and even -2.5 at some leading online sportsbooks before quickly moving to -1.5. The sportsbooks will be adding many more props in the days ahead of next week's party in Las Vegas during Super Bowl week. That includes most popular first player to score a touchdown and player props, which I chipped-in a 6-0 player props payout profit in the NFL divisional round and my coverage in Forbes.
BetOnline has added some first to score props and odds along with other margin of victory and scoring props. The 49ers (-130) are also favored to score the longest touchdown in Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 6 with kickoff at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streamed on Paramount+.
As a reminder, don't wait until after the Super Bowl to withdraw funds. You might be waiting in a longer press conference than Lions dumbo coach Dan Campbell was as he tried to explain why he was going for it multiple times on fourth down in field goal range rather than extending a 14-point lead in the second half. Or kicking the tying field goal midway through the fourth quarter. The Lions blew a 24-7 halftime lead in a 34-31 NFC championship loss to the 49ers.
The Chiefs have reached their fourth Super Bowl in the past five years. They have won twice, including last years thrilling 38-35 Super Bowl LVII win over the Philadelphia Eagles in a game we projected KC to win and go Over the total in a high-scoring finish.
I've been writing about rushing yards, edges, offensive and defensive line play and how teams that outrush their opponent more often rush to the window. I've shown different ways teams can benefit by rushing the football, attempts, and finding matchup edges that allow you to control the line of scrimmage and run or pass your way to more success.
Teams that outrushed their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game this season covered the point spread at a 75% ATS rate again this season - right at the historical average of my proprietary data base for 20+ years. It was an even stronger 82% ATS rate for teams that rushed the ball at least 30 times in a game, and those two situations each happened at least 170 times this season.
Now in the 2024 playoffs, teams that just outrush their opponents by any yardage are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS with the Lions rushing for 182 yards (155 Niners) and lost, but covered in the closing seconds with a TD vs. the 49ers.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 straight up (SU) and 40-14-3 against the spread, ATS (74%).
The 49ers defense allowed both the Packers (136) and Lions (182) big rushing yards for a combined average of 5.58 yards per rush in their two playoff wins. The Chiefs defense allowed the Bills to rush 182 yards but held both the Dolphins and Ravens under 85 yards rushing in their three playoff wins.
Including the playoffs, the 49ers average 139 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per rush and the Chiefs 109 YPG and 4.4 YPR. The 49ers defense has allowed 92 rushing yards per game (4.2 YPR) but not nearly as strong in the playoffs while the Chiefs defense has allowed 115 rushing YPG at 4.5 YPR.
Total defense the Chiefs have allowed 292 yards per game at 4.7 yards per play including the playoffs to the 49ers 305 YPG at 5.0 YPPL - both top-7 in the league.
Additional scoring stats including the playoffs show the Chiefs have averaged 22.3 points per game and 49ers 28.6. The Chiefs have allowed 17.1 points per game and 49ers 17.7 - both top-3 in the league.
In games against playoff teams this season, the 49ers are 7-3 SU and 3-6-1 ATS with a yards differential of +707. The Chiefs are 4-4 SU/ATS with a 3-0 SU/ATS run through the playoffs and a yards differential of +115. San Francisco is 14-5 SU and 9-10 ATS including the playoffs this season and Kansas City is 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS. The Chiefs and 49ers played seven common opponents this season including playoffs - Packers, Lions, Vikings, Eagles, Ravens, Bengals and Jaguars. The 49ers went 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS while the Chiefs were 4-3 SU/ATS.
Popular Player Props
As I write this on Monday following the NFL Conference Championship games, select online sportsbooks have started to post some player props.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes passing yards - Over/Under 260.5, pass completions O/U 25.5, pass attempts O/U 36.5, rushing yards O/U 25.5
- 49ers QB Brock Purdy passing yards - O/U 248.5, pass completions O/U 21.5, pass attempts O/U 32.5, rushing yards O/U 10.5
- Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco rushing yards - O/U 69.5
- 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey rushing yards - O/U 89.5
- 49ers WR Deebo Samuel rushing yards - O/U 15.5
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce receiving yards - O/U 72.5
- Chiefs WR Rashee Rice receiving yards - O/U 66.5
- 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk receiving yards - O/U 64.5
- 49ers WR Deebo Samuel receiving yards - O/U 55.5
- 49ers TE George Kittle receiving yards - O/U 47.5
- 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey receiving yards - O/U 35.5
We'll add more advanced stats ahead, but as you look towards matchups and edges, know that Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with a 0.27 EPA per target. His interior offensive line only allowed 34% pressure rate - #2 in NFL. All Pro Joe Thuney returned vs. Buffalo, but was out vs. Baltimore. The 49ers defensive strength is covering the middle of the field and intermediate routes (#3 NFL), and also ranked #4 vs. tight ends with Chiefs TE Travis Kelce piling up 71, 75 and 116 yards receiving last week vs. the Ravens catching 11-of-11 targets. Niners QB Brock Purdy is averaging a strong 9.0 yards per pass play in 16 games this season including playoffs when not playing in wet conditions. Niners WR Brandon Aiyuk's .8 EPA per target led the NFL. The Chiefs defense allowed just 60.5% completion percentage (#4) to QB's this season through the playoffs, including 57.4% in three playoff games.
Check back as we add more Super Bowl LVIII coverage, picks and prop bets with information you can bet on.
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