NBA Playoffs Game 7 Betting Odds, Trends, and Angles

  • In Ross Benjamin
  • Sat, May 11th, 2019 7:11:53 pm
  • By Ross Benjamin


Do you want to know how NBA Playoff home teams have done in a deciding Game 7 over the past 17 years? Well professional sports handicapper Ross Benjamin fills us in on all the information you need to know throughout this insightful article.

The Skinny on Sunday's Games

There’s been just one Game 7 during the ten 2019 NBA Playoff series that have been completed. Nonetheless, on Sunday 5/12 fans and bettors alike will have the pleasure of enjoying a pair of Game 7 matchups.

The early game has Denver hosting Portland with an opening tip time slated for 3:30 Eastern. The current NBA odds at 5Dimes has Denver as a 5.5-point favorite. There’s also a posted total of 213.0 at Bovada.

The second game features Toronto entertaining Philadelphia at 7:00 ET. Presently, Heritage is displaying the home team Raptors as a 6.0-point favorite. At the time of this writing, all major offshore sportsbooks are showing a total of 209.0.

The 2 previously mentioned conference semifinals series have resulted in the home teams going a combined 8-4 thus far.

The Western Conference series between Portland and Denver had 5 of the first 6 games go over the total, and that includes each of the previous 4. The underdogs are 4-2 ATS to this point.

The Eastern Conference Semifinals series involving Philadelphia and Toronto saw each of the first 4 games staying under, and then the next 2 went over. The underdogs have covered 4 of the previous 5 games.

Home Teams Dominate in Game 7

Since 2003, Game 7 home teams have gone 38-13 (.745) straight up and 30-21 ATS (58.8%). The home teams were the underdog on just 3 of those 51 occasions. However, since 2017, Game 7 home teams are just 4-3 straight up and 2-5 ATS.

As I already alluded to, there’s been just one series that’s been extended to a Game 7 in 2019, and that was between Denver and San Antonio. The hometown Nuggets won that contest 90-86 but failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite. Additionally, that contest easily went under the total of 207.5. Speaking of low scoring, these Game 7 series deciders have gone 30-21 (58.8%) under the total since 2003.

Tightening the Betting Parameters

Now let’s dive a bit deeper by expounding upon the previously mentioned Game 7 betting angles. If the home teams were favorites of 4.5-points or greater, they improved to an extremely profitable 27-11 ATS (71.1%) and 34-4 (.895) straight up. The average point-spread in those 38 contests was 6.7, and the favorites outscored their opponents by 11.9 points per game. Both of this Sunday’s games we’ve been discussing qualify in that regard.

I’m going to tighten these Game 7 betting parameters even further by eliminating all NBA Finals contests. When doing so, we saw Game 7 home favorites of 4.5-points or more ascend to an even better 25-9 ATS (73.5%) and 31-3 (.912) straight up. The last upset occurred in 2013 when the Chicago Bulls knocked off the then New Jersey Nets as a 6.5-point underdog.

Sunday Game 7 Team Betting Trends and Angles

Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals saw Portland stave off elimination by defeating Denver 119-108, and in doing so covered as a 4.0-point home favorite.

You may be very surprised to know that the Trailblazers are 1-9 straight up and 2-8 ATS this season as a road underdog following a game in which they were a home favorite. Additionally, if Portland was an underdog of 5.5-points or fewer, they then fell to 0-4 SU&ATS. There was an average line of 6.7 in those 4 contests and they lost by 11.7 points per game.

Denver is 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS this season as a home favorite of 10.0-points or less after being a road underdog in their previous game. If the Nuggets covered that previous game, they improved to 5-0 ATS and won by a massive 24.4 points per outing.

Philadelphia had its way in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals by easily knocking off Toronto 112-101, and they accomplished that feat as a 1.5-point home underdog.

The Game 6 result sets up a perfect NBA betting angle which supports Sunday’s home favorite. Any NBA Game 7 home favorite that’s coming off an away favorite straight up loss in their previous game has gone 6-0 ATS since 1983. The average line was 9.1 and those 6 favorites won by a substantial 19.3 points per game.


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