The Tennessee Titans (4-5) will host the Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) on Sunday with a slated 1:00 PM ET kickoff. According to the NFL betting odds at 5Dimes, Kansas City is a 6.0-point favorite and there’s a total of 48.0.

Most Recent Meeting

These teams last squared off during an AFC Wild Card Round playoff game on 1/6/2018, and Tennessee upset Kansas City 22-21 as a sizable 9.0-point road underdog. That contest went under the total of 44.0.
Return of Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City will welcome back their star quarterback Patrick Mahomes who returns from a 2-game absence. Mahomes went down with a dislocated kneecap during the Chiefs 30-6 Monday night win at Denver on 10/17. Veteran backup Matt Moore stepped in during Mahomes absence and Kansas City went 1-1 during his 2 starts.

It goes without saying, the Chiefs are a much more dynamic offense with Mahomes under center. During the 6 games he’s started and finished this season, Kansas City has averaged 28.6 points scored and 423.2 yards per game. For comparisons sake, in Matt Moore’s 2 starts, the Chiefs accounted for 25.0 points scored and 357.0 yards per contest.



Titans Quarterback Change Pays Dividends

The Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel gave former 1st round draft choice Marcus Mariotta plenty of opportunities to turn around his team’s offensive woes. Nonetheless, after a 5-game stretch which saw Tennessee average a mere 11.0 points per contest, Vrabel felt compelled to make a change at quarterback. Enter former Miami Dolphins starter and 1st round draft pick Ryan Tannehill. He’s now made 3 starts and Tennessee has averaged 23.3 points scored per game and surpassed 400 yards of total offense on 2 of those occasions. Furthermore, all 3 of Tannehill’s starts have gone over the total.

Pertinent Team Trends and Statistics

You may be surprised to know that Tennessee has gone over the total during 20 of its previous 30 home games (66.7%).
The Titans defense was outstanding during their first 6 games. Throughout that span, they allowed just 15.3 points and 321.8 yards per game. Nevertheless, their performance level has dropped off considerably over their last 3 outings. During that time frame, the Titans defense has allowed 24.3 points and 374.7 yards per contest.

Kansas City has gone over the total in 10 of their previous 12 road games. Moreover, if they were facing a non-division opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, all 7 of those Kansas City away games went over the total, and there were a combined 62.1 points scored per contest.

Final Take and Pick

This has the potential to be a very entertaining and high scoring affair. That’s exactly how I see it panning out. I’m taking this game to go over the total for one of my NFL picks on Sunday.

Pick: Over 48.0