Preview and predictions for Bengals at Jags
The Week 13 NFL schedule was good for favorite bettors again, as betting favorites are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS ahead of the Monday Night Football matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) and Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3). Home teams have had a tough week going 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS. In fact, home underdogs went just 1-6 SU and ATS.
That one home 'Dog winner was our only Week 13 underdog pick as Green Bay (+6) beat Kansas City 27-19 to save the leading online sportsbooks, including BetOnline from another brutal week. So our game selection was better laying off more games while favorites had another strong week for bettors after favorites went 12-4 SU/ATS in Week 12.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville
This line has steamed up to Jaguars -10 with a low game total of 40 points. Here are some added chip-ins along with selective advance stats shared from a sports betting colleague.
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is throwing the ball downfield more, and he has at least 130 yards on passes with 10+ air yards in 3 of the last 4 games after doing so only twice in the first 7 weeks.
- The Bengals pass defense has allowed a league-high 290 passing yards over their last three contests, all losses to the Steelers, Ravens and Texans. The Bengals 250 passing yards allowed per game ranks No. 27 in the league, but just in front of the Jaguars pass defense (255 YPG). Cincinnati's defense is also allowing a league-high 63% success rate to tight ends, and Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt is out (concussion, ankle). And teams are hitting big plays against the Bengals defense, which has allowed 20 or more yards every 11.8 plays, the highest rate in the league.
- Of greater concern is the Bengals run defense which is allowing 5.0 yards per rush and 139 rushing yards per game - both No. 31 in the league. It's worse in their last three contests allowing a league-worst 166 rushing yards per game, and the Bengals defense is also allowing a 42.9 rush success rate (No. 27). The Jaguars run defense is allowing just 87 rushing yards per game (No. 3).
- Jaguars RB Travis Etienne, Jr. likely plays (ribs), and he is top-10 in rushing with 726 yards. Jacksonville is also top-10 in rushing attempts per game (29.1).
- The Bengals running game is lacking and averaging 1.2 fewer yards per rushing play than their opponents, the worst differential in the league.
- Bengals QB Jake Browning has replaced injured Joe Burrow, and he tried to carry the team without a running game last week (11 for 27 yards) in a 16-10 home loss to the Steelers, who just lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13. Browning will try to target top WR Ja'Marr Chase more than six times Monday night, but Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) returns and Jacksonville also has a solid pass rush to attack a weaker pass blocking left tackle with edge defender Josh Allen off a career-high 12 pressures against the Texans three games back. The Bengals are also averaging 1.7 fewer yards per passing play than their opponent (No. 31).
- The Jaguars are 7-2 ATS over their past nine games, tied for the best rate in the league over that span. Thus you're laying a premium on the Jaguars with the Bengals recent 0-3 SU/ATS slide as well.
We're not in the business of buying high or chasing steam, but rather you should look for value and buy low and sell high. So no play on the side, or total. The matchups favor the Jaguars, and the rushing projections are poor for Cincinnati, so no underdog pick on the Bengals with a backup QB not yet showing he can make up the difference.
Player Prop: Jaguars TE Evan Engram 'over' 42.5 receiving yards (BetOnline)
Seventh year player Evan Engram is on pace to surpass his career-high targets of 115 in a season. He'll definitely surpass his career-high 73 receptions last season as he's already hauled in 64 catches as a preferred target for QB Trevor Lawrence, who targeted Engram a team-high 8 times last week (5 catches, 49 yards) while nearly hitting his career-high with 364 passing yards. The Bengals defense allowed Pittsburgh's pathetic offense and passing attack to pass for 278 yards last week. And Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth led the way with 9 catches for 120 yards. Yes, Engram is projected to have a good game and cash in for a profit and payout with coach Doug Peterson making his TE a focal point of the Jaguars passing attack Monday night.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.