Fairway’s Football Forecast: 2023 NFL Week 14 Underdog Picks

Week 14 NFL underdog picks and insights from FairwayJay, with information you can bet on. Insights and free NFL underdog betting report.

Sports betting news and underdog picks for NFL Week 14

The NFL Week 14 schedule includes six division games with two in the NFC South where the league's weakest division shows the Atlanta Falcons (6-6) leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) and New Orleans Saints (5-7) with the Falcons hosting the Bucs on Sunday. The Detroit Lions (9-3) travel to tackle the Chicago Bears (4-8) in a quick turnaround game, and the Seattle Seahawks (6-6) visit the Bay area for a quick turnaround game with the San Francisco 49ers (9-3), who smashed the Seahawks 31-13 on Thanksgiving night. The Lions and 49ers will remain in first place regardless of their results Sunday.

NFL Week 14 underdog free picksThe Los Angeles Chargers (5-7) host the Denver Broncos (6-6) in the late afternoon window Sunday, and those two teams are chasing an AFC Wild Card spot, but currently on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. So are the Buffalo Bills (6-6), who travel for the most bet late afternoon game against the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) in a non-division duel. But the sixth and final division game of the week is the biggest and most watched and wagered game of the week when the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) visit AT&T Stadium against the Dallas Cowboys (9-3) in a first place showdown on Sunday Night Football. That contest has the highest game total of the week at 51.5 points and many online sportsbooks, and 52 points at BetOnline. The Eagles held off the Cowboys 28-23 back in Week 7 despite Dallas having a 406-292 yards advantage on offense. 

Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 16-13 back in Week 7, and the oddsmakers and leading online sportsbooks are anticipating another close contest with the Falcons (-1.5) a slight favorite, and down from +2.5, and the game total at 39.5 points. 

Scoring surge in Week 13

The Week 13 results finally showed more scoring with games averaging 47.8 points per game - the second-highest scoring week this season (Week 2 highest). It helped that the prime time night games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night all went over the total with two games eclipsing 64 points including the big upset on Monday Night Football with the Bengals (+10) outlasting the Jaguars 34-31 in overtime. We chipped-in an easy prop bet winner on that contest with Jaguars TE Evan Engram flying over his receiving yards prop (42.5) that was bet up sharply, but he finished with a team high 82 receiving yards and 9 receptions. 

Our Week 13 underdog picks went 1-0 with an outright winner on Green Bay over Kansas City. If you read the analysis you may have profited more with our 'over' the total recommendation in the Packers 27-19 win. Our NFL underdog picks are now 18-24 ATS this season with 10 outright winners for our worst year posting at OSGA just two seasons after posting a record 70% season in 2021. The 6+ year record of posting only NFL underdog picks is now 180-141 ATS (56%). That's very good over a near 7-year run, but clearly a disappointing season so far and looking for a bounce and correction over the final closing stretch of the season. 

For the season, NFL underdogs are winning less than 45% ATS. We made good game selection management decisions last week for the most part with just one underdog pick. Favorites had a second straight strong week going 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS until the Bengals won outright Monday night to reward 'Dog bettors. So favorites were 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS for the week and two of our 'Dog considerations on the Broncos and Jets lost by less than a FG ATS.  

The Sunday and Monday contests are now 14-2 'under' the total the last eight weeks following a pair of overs in Week 12. For the season, Sunday and Monday night games are 29-9 'under' the total, not including Thanksgiving, with Monday Night Football totals 14-2 under this season (2 overs, 14 overs).  

NFL Week 14 Odds 

Here are the Week 14 spreads from BetAnySports, which are subject to change. Spreads listed on favorites. Two Monday Night Football games. 

- NE at PIT (-6), total 30 TNF
- JAX at CLE (-3), 30.5
- LAR at BAL (-7), 40
- DET (-3) at CHI, 43.5  
- CAR at NO (-4.5), 37.5
- TB at ATL (-1.5), 39.5
- IND at CIN (+1), 43.5
- HOU (-4) at NYJ, 33
- SEA at SF (-10.5), 46.5
- MIN (-3) at LV, 43.5
- DEN at LAC (-3), 44
- BUF at KC (-2), 48.5
- PHI at DAL (-3.5), 52 SNF
- TEN at MIA (-13.5), 46.5 MNF
- GB (-6.5) at NYG, 35 MNF

I'll be reviewing more stats and injury reports, but adding more underdog picks now ahead of Friday. That includes on the Patriots as underdog to kickoff Week 14 on Thursday night, and more game notes on other contests and underdogs of consideration.

More QB injuries to consider. After we saw a capable and competent backup QB Jake Browning have a sensational game leading the Bengals to the big upset win Monday night at Jacksonville, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (ankle) went down with injury. Now the line has moved sharply up on the Browns with Lawrence's status uncertain and CJ Beathard more likely to start. The Jaguars were -3 on the Week 14 lookahead line. Saints QB Derek Carr is in concussion protocol, but the Panthers are still an unattractive play with their crappy rookie QB Bryce Young, even with dingbat Jameis Winston starting for New Orleans.

We're missing some of the best numbers with line movement, but we've discussed that before. Still, the Jets crappy QB carousel continues and the offensive struggles did again last week although QB off the street Joe Flacco was mostly fine through three quarters, but the Jets were on the wrong side of a 3-0 turnover differential in a 13-8 loss to the Falcons. But we're still supporting the Jets and their No. 3 DVOA defense with Houston's Rookie of the Year quarterback CJ Stroud expected to find more resistance this week and the Jets to perhaps their 0-5 SU/ATS slide. See the Patriots pathetic offensive display below as we support them this week, and then know that the Jets have scored 8, 13, 6, 12 and 6 points in losing 5-straight games. Then know that Houston is a -4.5 point road favorite at some leading online sportsbooks, and the top team Philadelphia Eagles were a -6.5 point favorite at New York back in mid-October when the Jets found a way to win (the turnover battle) the game 20-14 over Philadelphia. 

So yes, we're going to try and pick some ugly underdogs this week again with sub-par quarterbacks in underdog roles, including the bad news Bears at home against the first-place Lions with an expected rushing edge for the Bears with QB Justin Fields a part, but hopefully not of turnovers. The Bears had the Lions beat in Week 11 before blowing the game badly in one of the worst losses of the year (but ATS win). The Bears outrushed the Lions 183-115 and ran the ball 46 times! And still lost. Just disgusting, which was the case often last season as well with dominant running numbers. Fields has looked better since returning including passing, and while the best numbers are gone, the Bears will bring their best and potential rain/wind. The total dropped from 44 and dropped sharply and is not back up to 43.5.  

Betting on another high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Eagles, but still not playing Philly as a +3 and now +3.5 point underdog. Instead, we'll back the Buccaneers expecting an outright win and knowing the +2.5 and +2's are gone against Atlanta. The Falcons won last week at New York despite just 194 yards offense and 3.0 yards per play behind their crappy QB Desmond Ridder. They had a +3 turnover differential, and the Bucs defense rank higher in both offensive and defensive DVOA than than the Falcons and not only have a score to settle for a 16-13 loss to Atlanta in Week 7, but their season is on the line for a playoff spot and division title as the Bucs are 1-game behind the first-place Falcons in the weak NFC South.  

NFL Week 14 Underdog Opinions and Considerations 

New England (+6) at Pittsburgh
Chicago (+3) vs. Detroit
Tampa Bay (+1.5) at Atlanta
Cincinnati (+1) vs. Indianapolis
New York Jets (+4.5) vs. Houston
Las Vegas (+3) vs. Minnesota
Buffalo (+2) at Kansas City
New York Giants (+6.5) vs. Green Bay

Be sure to monitor the NFL weather with cooler temps and more rain in forecasts, and snow and cold in weeks ahead. 

Obviously, some of these underdogs less than 3 points are attractive teaser options. And recall in Week 12 when we suffered a terrible ATS week with favorites going 12-4 SU and 11-4-1 ATS depending the numbers you bet, all but one of our Sunday spread losses won on teasers, so many one-score games and losses. 

NFL Week 14 injury reports

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 14 Underdog Picks 

New England (+6) at Pittsburgh - Patriots Moneyline +230
Chicago (+3) vs. Detroit - Bears Moneyline +150 and +3.5 spread available at -120
Tampa Bay (+1.5) at Atlanta - Buccaneers Moneyline +105
Cincinnati (+1) vs. Indianapolis - Bengals Moneyline +100
New York (+4.5) vs. Houston - Jets Moneyline +170
Las Vegas (+3) vs. Minnesota - Raiders Moneyline +135
Buffalo (+2) at Kansas City - Bills Moneyline +110
New York (+6.5 / 7) vs. Green Bay - Giants Moneyline +250

I'll work on more game analysis, stats and insight for Friday and over the weekend. Another big card and more home 'Dogs despite home 'Dogs just 1-6 SU/ATS last week and our bad results in Week 12 with seven plays as well. 

New England at Pittsburgh - Few will want a piece of the POS Patriots (2-9), who are on a 0-5 SU/ATS losing skid while failing to score more than 17 points in those games including 0, 7 and 6 points in their last three contests. Consider that New England's defense only allowed 6, 10 and 10 points in those losses, and you can see the offense is a complete disaster while the defense has been terrific holding the Chargers and QB Herbert to 241 yards, Giants to 220 yards and Colts to 264 yards. New England Patriots TNF underdog pickNow they face the Steelers and QB Mitch Trubisky becoming yet another backup to start with Kenny Pickett (ankle) out. This is a historically low game total now at 30 points, which an NFL game hasn't seen since the early 1990's. Know too that the Patriots have rushed for 147 and 148 yards in their two recent games since their bye, but starting RB Stevenson is out. Also, the Patriots are 0-10 SU/ATS in their last ten non-division battles and 1-12 SU/ATS in their thirteen games as a 'Dog, finding more ways to lose than win. But we've known the Steelers are crap despite a 7-5 record following last week's home loss to the crappy Cardinals. Pittsburgh has scored just 10 and 16 points in their last two games, but did managed to out-gain their first two opponents of the season since they fired their offensive coordinator. 

Green Bay at New York Giants (MNF) - See if you can get +7 Monday. The Giants (4-8) have won 2-straight and enter off a bye for their Monday Night Football home game vs. the Packers (6-6). Green Bay cashed in for us last Sunday night in their outright home 'Dog win over the Chiefs. Giants Packers MNF free pickThe Packers are playing their best football along with QB Jordan Love while back in the NFC playoff picture. The Giants and QB Tommy DeVito, who was much better vs Washington two games back and fine against the Patriots? Yes, with RB Barkley going to carry a big load and the Giants fit a very strong 17-2 ATS situation as a crappy team off a bye as a TD or more underdog against a team off a TD+ win. In addition, Green Bay has won 3-straight games as underdog. That triggers not only a value situations supporting the Giants, but a 20-32 ATS situation on the Packers off those three outright 'Dog wins, and a 6-20 ATS subset when those teams are not an underdog again. The low total of 36.5 points makes the Packers ATS situation even worse. Monday night home 'Dog taking plenty of points is the way to go. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.  

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