Identifying Week 1 NFL Underdogs in Pursuit of Profit 

We're back for an eighth straight year posting only NFL underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association. Fairway's Football Forecast is delayed heading into Week 1 having been on the medical/injury list as questionable. Now a game time decision, but likely to start, I planned on a light week of picks and plays with Fairway's backup QB seeing playing time opening week. But after further review, I'm firing away with four Week 1 underdog pick below. Plenty of games and weeks ahead to evaluate and engage in NFL action with plans for Fairway's followers to profit from the experience again as we provide information you can bet on and chip-in to help you learn while you earn.  

FairwayJay's NFL History At OSGA

While providing engaging and entertaining content and chippin'-in more winners the past 7 years with Fairway's Football Forecast NFL Underdog Picks, the record entering 2024 is 190-144 (57%) with 110 outright winners. That included a 28-27 finish last year following a slow start and poor results through 2/3 of the season. Then a 7-0 result in Week 14 (plus a push) including 7 outright underdog winners provided bettors the Big Bertha week that propelled us through December going 11-1 with 9 outright winners. Overall, it was a losing year for underdogs as favorites won at a 53-54% ATS rate (pending lines, moves, grading), so a winning record for our underdog picks wasn't bad and a strong late season rally was the difference. But we can be better and still shoot for another 55% ATS season or better in 2024 selecting only NFL underdogs. 

The 2021 NFL season was a record-breaking result with 70% winners going 28-12 ATS with 21 outright winners. All of this follows past history as a proven, profitable top of the leaderboard handicapper and point spread prognosticator when I was documented by the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City with 8 straight winning seasons and 57% ATS (371-277) as a proven sports handicapper with strategies and sports betting stories providing plays, profits and payouts to a paying client base. That including a Rookie of the Year season hitting 65% ATS (52-28) my first season many years ago and setting a high bar for future seasons. I was a regular guest discussing college and pro football and basketball games weekly on a most popular sports handicapping and betting radio show in Las Vegas and heard nationally in 50 arbitron markets and on SiriusXM radio. That was years before sports betting became legal in 2017 in the United States, and bettors were provided more betting options and offshore opportunities from leading online sportsbooks. 

If you’re uncertain of those top of the leader board results, ask a real professional bettor or handicapper what winning more than 57% Against the Spread over many hundreds of plays means, and then try it and track results yourself. You'll find out quickly enough that it will be very, very unlikley you or any professional you want to target will achieve those results. 

You can bet on it. 

I no longer tout or sell picks through companies, although I've been asked numerous times to provide my expertise and proven winning results to others. Instead, I provide it to the public and I'm compensated by media companies, sportsbooks, betting groups and other online sites and companies who have an interest in quality content from an experienced, proven pro who offers insight and information you can bet on.  

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NFL Week 1 Picks And Perception

Week 1 of the NFL season is a unique challenge. Perception can override reality, as last year's top teams and playoff participants get much more love and accolades than the bottom teams looking to rebound and rebuild off a losing season. That often sets up contrary calls and results. With Week 1 betting lines being available to bet since the NFL schedules were announced in May, there is more line movement. 

Like last season, we'll plan on getting our early considerations for underdog picks out by Wednesday, starting in Week 2. We'll include some official underdog picks at that time with an understanding of potential line moves and an earlier position on our picks and bets. But the final weekly Fairway Forecast will be updated on this same site Friday and sometimes Saturday after reviewing the injury reports with the potential to periodically add any additional picks over the weekend. 

We had no plans to pick either underdog in the Week 1 Thursday/Friday games, and both favorites won with the Chiefs (-2.5/3) over the Ravens 27-20 on a last second overturned TD on Baltimore. Then Friday in Brazil, the Eagles (-1) and my top fantasy pick (#11 round 1) Saquon Barkley (3 TD's) prevailed over the Packers 34-29. I planned on a light week, but as I returned from a medical issue and the hospital late this week, I'm moving forward with more underdog picks below as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron to kickoff the 2024 NFL season. 

Top 5 Spread moves since lines were released (on May 15th)

1. Giants -1 to +1.5 (vs. Vikings)
2. Eagles -3.5 to -2 (vs. Packers)
3. Saints -5.5 to -4 (vs. Panthers)
4. Browns -1 to -2.5 (vs. Cowboys)
5. Niners -5.5 to -4 (vs. Jets)#NFL #Betting

— BetOnline (@BetOnline_ag) September 5, 2024

Here are the current lines at BetOnline into Sunday, Sept. 8 for Week 1 and the first full Sunday games of the 2024 regular season. Compare and shop lines at top online sportsbooks, along with reduced juice sportsbooks like BetAnySports and Loose Lines to save you thousands of dollars during the football season.  

- Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Jaguars
 -Falcons (-3.5) vs. Steelers
- Bengals (-7.5) vs. Patriots
- Bears (-3.5) vs. Titans
- Bills (-6.5) vs. Cardinals
- Texans (-2.5) at Colts
- Chargers (-3) vs. Raiders
- Seahawks (-6) vs. Broncos
- Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Commanders
- Lions (-4.5) vs. Lions 

Note the line moves above, along with total moves since mid-May to current. 

1. Cowboys/Browns 45 to 41 2.
2. Eagles/Packers 46 to 49.5
3. Raiders/Chargers 42.5 to 40.5
4. Texans/Colts 46.5 to 48.5
5. Jets/Niners 46 to 44 

Final call for Betonline NFL Survivor contest players to enter for just $30 with a prize pool of $450,000 and growing. 

Last season, we had four Week 1 underdog picks and went 3-1 with three outright winners. Two seasons ago in 2022 we had 7 picks in Week 1 and went 4-3. We also had a 9-0 run over four weeks into Week 16 of the 2022 season, and then the rush to the window 11-1 ATS run in December last year in 2023 that included the 7-0 ATS winners with 7 outright 'Dogs in Week 14. Keep all that in mind as we grind our way through another NFL season shooting for more profit, Fairways and Green(s). 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 1 Underdog Picks And ATS Situations

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Miami - Jaguars Moneyline +155
Indianapolis (+3) vs. Houston - Colts Moneyline +135
Dallas (+2.5) at Cleveland - Cowboys Moneyline +120
New York (+4 or 4.5) at San Francisco - Jets Moneyline +175 (Monday Night Football)

The Jaguars were 8-3 through 11 games last season and a better than 94% chance to make the playoffs, but somehow blew it and missed the postseason party and lost 5 of their final 6 games to finish 9-8. Now Jacksonville has the toughest opening four games of the season with road games at Miami, Buffalo and Houston and a home game in Week 2 vs. the Browns. Miami crashed and burned late last season as well. Despite making the playoffs, the Dolphins lost their final two regular season games to give away the AFC East division title, and then were crushed by the Chiefs in the opening round of the playoffs. Bettors are on the Dolphins side in Week 1 with nearly 70% of the spread bets on the fish at top online sportsbooks. The Jaguars have changes on defense including a new cordinator as they look to slow down the Dolphins, who are 6-0 SU/ATS under 3rd year head coach Mike McDaniel during the first three games of the season.   

The Colts have a solid defensive front ranked No. 7 by Pro Football Focus to start the season. They also have a healthy Jonathan Taylor back at running back, and hopefully a ready QB Anthony Richardson off his rookie season-ending shoulder injury in October. Houston was the surprise team last season with ROY quarterback CJ Stroud and Coach of the Year Demeco Ryans, who is still not at Colts 2nd year coach Shane Steichen's level, IMO. Houston won more games last season than the previous three seasons combined. Playbook notes that teams in this quandary find themselves in a severe “return to the norm” mode in follow-up seasons. That’s evidenced by the fact that these teams have gone 49-81-1 SU and 52-74-5 ATS combined since 1980, including 4-17 ATS as division -favorites. See the powerful division home 'Dog log in Week 1 below, and if you're in the betting business of fading public perception, overreactions, buying high and selling low, then the Colts are your Week 1 play against over-hyped Houston.
 
The Cowboys are are still the better team in this matchup, and note the season win projections of Dallas 10.5 and Cleveland 8.5. So we'll take the points and of course add a portion of the bet on the moneyline, which has proven so profitable with 110 outright winners the past 7 years on our NFL Underdog picks (190-144 ATS). The Browns are 3-21-1 outright record in season openers, but 2-0 the past two seasons and we cashed in on Cleveland in Week 1 last seaosn. Team trends are not worth buying into, but personnel and matchups are and the Cowboys have star WR CeeDee Lamb, the better QB in Dak Prescott and a solid new, experienced former head coach and DC in Mike Zimmer to turn star LB Micah Parson's and the defense loose on Deshaun. That horrific trade by Denver to get QB Russell Wilson in 2022 is only trumped by the Browns 2022 trade for dipsh*t QB Deshaun Watson. Browns RB Nick Chubb is out the first four games, and these two teams will grind for yards with both top-7 defensive fronts. Hopefully fewer mistakes, misreads or turnover by Cowboys QB Dak Presscot than dumbo Deshaun. 

The NY Jets are my pick to win the AFC East if QB Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy as New York boasts another dominate defense. They'll be called on to hold up against a 49ers team that (should have) won the Super Bowl last season after ranking No. 1 in yards per play margin, yards per game margin and No. 2 in scoring margin last year. Breece Hall looks primed for a big year out of the Jets backfield, and NY coach Robert Saleh returns to where he was the defensive coordinator for four years under 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan.

Check back Sunday for any additional analysis, ATS and information you can bet on.

Week 1 totals went 4-12 Over/Under last season and 12 game totals under was a result of just 41 points per game average scoring in Week 1. I have bet the Steelers/Falcons game under the total in Week 1 to kick off my 2024 over/under game total bets. The Steelers were -0.4 in yards per play margin, -37.8 in yards per game margin, but have a top-10 defense again and a new QB in Russell Wilson, who was kicked out of Denver after the Broncos made one of NFL's most horrific trades (1st & 2nd round draft picks 2022 & 2023 to Seattle & more). Lots of running and shorter passes projected with the Falcons at home, a new head coach, coordinators and QB Cousins debut coming off injury from the Vikings. 

Last season there were eight division games in Week 1, and this season there are just three. I decided to pull the trigger on the Colts as home 'Dog with the line moving to a full field goal at +3. 
- Las Vegas (+3) at LA Chargers
- Carolina (+4) at New Orleans
- Indianapolis (+3) vs. Houston

Betting Angle: Divisional home underdogs are 19-11-1 straight up (SU) and 23-8 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 since 2009. Last season those home 'Dogs were just 2-4 SU/ATS, but we had both winners on our Week 1 underdog picks who won outright (Browns & Jets).

This season, there are just two home underdogs, the Giants and division 'Dog Colts. The home team has won and covered the last 6 meetings between the Raiders and Chargers, and both teams start the season with new head coaches and clear edge at head coach and quarterback to the LA Chargers (Harbaugh and Herbert) vs. the Raiders (Pierce and Minshew).The Carolina Panthers also have a new head coach for last years worst team following a 2-15 season. 

The Bears have the No. 1 overall draft pick starting in rookie QB Caleb Williams. Many handicappers lining up on Tennessee as 'Dog, but not me (see rushing info below). But first overall picks of the NFL Draft starting a game as a QB in Week 1 are just 2-21 ATS, including 0-14-1 ATS in their debut game since 2003 (according to Playbook).

Also, BetUS reports that all Week 1 underdogs have hit 56% ATS the last 11 seasons going 97-75-4 ATS (10-6 ATS last year) with divisional 'Dogs 40-18-1 ATS (69%) home or away (5-3 ATS last year).  

Week 1 rushing edges & notable projections:
- Ravens over Chiefs
- Eagles over Packers
- Vikings over Giants
- Bears over Titans (biggest edge)
- Buccaneers over Commanders

Follow my rushing to the window updates and rushing stats this season as I document box score data each week in spread sheets, and evaluate PFF's offensive line rankings and adjustements along with defensive line rankings and overall yards per rush differential. We'll add some projections along the way each week knowing that NFL teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game have covered the spread at just greater than 75% ATS the past six seasons on more than 1,000 outcomes, sample size. That includes 130-45-9 ATS (74%) last season, and also 81% ATS last season if a team ran the ball 30 or more times in a game (and their opponent did not). 

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.