Predictions and underdog picks for NFL Week 2

The NFL Week 2 slate follows a Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season that produced 16 games that average 45.8 points per game - nearly 5 PPG more than last season's opening week. That resulted in 9-7 over/unders for leading online sportsbooks. Favorites did well going 13-3 SU and 9-6-1 ATS, yet our NFL Week 1 underdog picks were a perfect 3-0 ATS on Sunday before dopping Monday nights game on the Jets in a poor performance after 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey was ruled out. Week 2 early projections of potential picks were not out by Wednesday as I've been traveling and at a sports, betting and business conference. But I've added information you can bet on below and will update more underdog picks by Friday. 

As I load boxscore data into a spread sheet every week, I noted that teams that ran the ball 30 or more times in Week 1 went 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS. The opening Thursday night game saw the Ravens lose to the Chiefs 27-20 despite a 185-72 rushing edge and 452-353 total yards advantage. Despite the accolades for QB Lamar Jackson, his fumble and mistake proved costly again. Teams that ran the ball less than 23 times went 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS. Turnovers proved problematic again with teams that suffered at least a -3 turnover differential going 0-2 SU/ATS and teams -2 in TO's were 1-4 SU/ATS. 

NFL Week 2 Odds And Betting Data

Here is where the money and bets are for teams in NFL Week 2 from BetOnline.

NFL WK2 early tickets

61% MIA -2.5 v BUF
68% BAL -10 v LV
76% LAC -6.5 @ CAR
75% DAL -6.5 v NO
58% TB +7 @ DET
70% IND -3 @ GB
51% CLE +3.5 @ JAX
63% SF -6 @ MIN
73% SEA -3.5 @ NE
53% TEN +3.5 v NYJ
80% WAS -1 v NYG
52% LAR +1 @ AZ
58% KC -5.5 v CIN
56% DEN +3 v PIT
79% HOU -6 v…

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) September 11, 2024

I've had some memorable moments and NFL seasons in my 20 year career posting NFL picks with many before posting here at Off Shore Gaming Association. That includes a 70% season in 2021 posting underdog picks at OSGA when we finished 28-12 ATS with 21 outright winners. But Week 2 of the NFL season is one of my favorite weeks. During the 2009 season when I was selling picks and featured weekly on handicapping shows in Las Vegas and national radio talking sports, I went 10-0 ATS on the biggest week of releases in my career and posted publicly a written analysis for every game. See the Perfection Reflection 10-0 link for a recap. 

Week 2 is always an adjustment and often over-reaction to Week 1 results. It's also a week where 0-1 teams are likely to bring big efforts to avoid going 0-2. There are six games featuring teams that both lost in Week 1, so we're assured of seeing at least six teams going to 0-2 after having three such games last season.

NFL 0-1 vs. 0-1 matcups Week 2

- Las Vegas at Baltimore (-9) 
- Indianapolis (-3) at Green Bay 
- Cleveland at Jacksonville (-3)
- NY Jets (-3.5) at Tennessee 
- NY Giants at Washington (-2)
- LA Rams at Arizona (-1) 

With Packers QB Jordan Love injured (knee) last week and out nearly a month, bumbling Bro Malik Wills starts for Green Bay and there is an 8-point swing in the betting line with the Colts now a -3 point road favorite. 

Teams that start 0-1 and playing 1-0 teams are often profitable bets in Week 2, and there are five such matchups in Week 2 including three home underdogs. Some over-reaction to Week 1 results can create an opportunity to gain a little value on the 0-1 teams with more public betting support on the 1-0 teams. Still, we'll dig into the matchups further and post any final decisions Friday following injury updates, and potentially Saturday.  

NFL 0-1 vs. 1-0 Matchups Week 2

Carolina (+6) vs. LA Chargers
Cincinnati (+5.5 / 6) at Kansas City
Denver (+2.5 / 3) vs. Pittsburgh
Atlanta (+6.5) at Philadelphia

Week 2 Systems 

(courtesy of VSiN) 

Three select systems, (over)reactions to Week 1 results, contrary thinking. 

1.) Week 2 teams playing as favorites OR underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points the prior week are 47-17 SU and 39-22-3 ATS (64%) since 2003 (3-1 SU/1-3 ATS last year) 

Play ON teams:  MIA, DET, DAL 

2.) Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 16-9 SU and 15-8-2 ATS (65%) in Week 2 since 2007  

Play ON teams: CAR (2-2 SU/1-2-1 ATS last year) 

3.) Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 have responded by going 47-27-4 ATS (63.5%) in Week 2 over the last 12 seasons 

3-3 SU/2-2-2 ATS in 2023 and 4-1-1 ATS in 2022

Play ON eams: CAR, LV, CLE, NYJ (WSH-NYG cancel each other) 

Also, underdogs of more than 4 points off a 35+ point loss (like Panthers) have gone 48-18-2 ATS (73%) over the past 20 years in the NFL (Action Network).

NFL Game 2 underdogs off a SU loss as a favorite are 65-44-4 ATS since 1980 (Playbook). If same 'Dog playing team off a win, 54-33-3 ATS. If same 'Dog is playing a non-division opponent, 32-16-1 ATS.  (Play on Falcons, Bengals, Browns)

Week 2 Underdog Picks, Opinions and Considerations

Las Vegas (+9) at Baltimore - Raiders Moneyline +330
Carolina (+6) vs. LA Chargers - Panthers Moneylin +220
New Orleans (+6.5) at Dallas - Saints Moneyline +225
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Detroit - Buccaneers Moneyline +290
Cleveland (+3) at Jacksonville - Browns Moneyline +135
Minnesota (+6) vs. San Francisco - Vikings Moneyline +210
New England (+3.5) vs. Seattle - Patriots Moneyline +160
Arizona (-1) vs. LA Rams - Cardinals Moneyline -120
Cincinnati (+5.5 / 6) at Kansas City - Bengals Moneyline +195
Denver (+2.5 / +3, -120) vs. Pittsburgh - Broncos Moneyline +120

The Saints also took early money from +7.5 to +6 or +6.5. This just looks and feels like a stronger week for underdogs and we'll review more, add some anaylsis and ATS with information you can bet on before adding additional final picks to those below.  

Should we add all 10 and go for another 10-0 ATS week?

NFL Week 2 injury reports 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 2 Underdog Picks

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Detroit - Buccaneers Moneyline +290
Minnesota (+6) vs. San Francisco - Vikings Moneyline +210
Arizona (-1) vs. LA Rams - Cardinals Moneyline -120
Cincinnati (+5.5 / 6) at Kansas City - Bengals Moneyline +195
Denver (+2.5 / +3, -120) vs. Pittsburgh - Broncos Moneyline +120
Chicago (+6) at Houston - Bears Moneyline +230

A few times during the past seasons we'll include home favorites of less than 2 points who are priced like an underdog. That applies this week and we like the Arizona Cardinals still at -1 after they flipped from home underdog. The Rams are on a shorter week of the Sunday night loss to the Lions and travel again with injuries mounting for a division game. Trend players will prefer the Rams, as LA 13-2 SU/ATS since 2017 with those 13 wins over the Cardinals coming by an avgerage of 18 points per game and all 13 wins are by at least 7 points. We look at this current matchups, injuries and projections. 

Check back as we dig into the matchups further and post more final decisions Friday following injury updates with information you can bet on. 

Tampa Bay was most impressive in a 37-20 win over weakling Washington last week with a balanced offensive attack producing nearly 400 yards offense (6.4 YPPL). Baker Mayfield posted the best QBR (146) of the week while completing 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD’s. Everyone saw the Lions (-4.5) escape with a 26-20 Sunday night win and miraculous ATS cover for their lucky betting backers on OT touchdown after tying the game late in regulation. Much to like about the Lions, but you’re still paying a pretty hefty tax on a high-priced stock that is Detroit. The Buccaneers are the low-priced ‘buy’ stock that is floating under the radar. I’m also aware that Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS in his NFL career against .800 or greater opponents. Now you are too. 

The Vikings were also impressive in their 28-6 win over another putrid NFC East outfit in the No Good G-Men. That win was on the road, and now the purple pride returns home fitting some positive ATS profiles as home ‘Dog against the NFC’s best 49er’s, who will play their second-straight game without All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey (IR). San Francisco will also travel on a short week off their dominating 32-19 win over the NY Jets Monday night when they rushed for 180 yards with 147 from little-known Jordan Mason. The 49ers are a ‘Purdy’ tough team, but this inflated line would also suggest San Fran would be a double-digit home favorite over the Vikings and the Niners previous backup QB Sam Darnold, who was solid is his Vikings debut. Wouldn’t you take the Vikings on the road? Surely the sharps do at home supporting Purple Pride. 

The Bengals were a Week 1 victim of Any Given Sunday in the NFL with the Patriots pulling the 16-10 upset while also knocking out nearly 5,000 entries (34%) who took Cincinnati in the Circa Survivor $14 million pro football contest in Las Vegas. The Bengals are clearly not that bad, but the Chiefs remain fortunate again with a Week 1 win over the Ravens 27-20 despite getting outrushed 180-72. See the technical parameters above and know the Bengals fit the 65-44 and 32-16 ATS profiles plus a 54-33 ATS angle against a team coming off a win. Week 2 is about contrary thinking, and that propelled us to a perfect 10-0 result in Week 2 of the 2009 season. We count on the cash with Cincinnati knowing too that the Bengals under QB Joe Burrow are 17-6 ATS off a loss, 21-11 ATS away, 16-9 ATS as ‘Dog, and 26-12 ATS in non-division games. 

The Cardinals had a solid shot to win last week at Buffalo, but bettors settled for the cash ATS in a 34-28 loss. Cardinals announcer says this year’s team is as well coached as any for Arizona in more than a decade. The Rams are riddled with injuries, and the offensive line leads the way  with injuries. Also out is WR Puca Nacua. The Cardinals opened as an underdog, and we added them -1 still priced like a ‘Dog. The Rams have won 9-straight times at Arizona. That ends this Sunday, turnovers withstanding, right QB Kyler Murray? 

The Broncos were another loser for starting rookie QB’s in Week 1 as Bo Nix was bad with a 47 QBR, 2 INT’s and 138 passing yards on 42 attempts (3.3 YPPL). Ugh. The Broncos defense also allowed 146 rushing yards on 33 carries to the Seahawks in a 26-20 loss while the Steelers were pounding the ground for a week-high 41 rushes adding up to 137 rushing yards with QB Justin Fields running for 57 and adding 156 passing in a rare turnover-free game. Don’t worry, he’ll fkup this week, but plenty of running and conservative play calls. The lowest game total of the week is this contest at 36.5 points, and Dr. Bob Sports notes the Steelers under HC Tomlin are 52-20-2 Under the total in all regular season road games since 2015. Also, the Steelers are just 9-32-1 ATS in non-division games after a win when facing a team with a win percentage of 0.400 or lower, including 4-20 ATS on the road. The Broncos are also 42-9 SU at home in the first two weeks since 1980. While we don’t care as much about past historical trends and put more emphasis on the matchups, this contest has more exceptions as the Steelers also over-achieved last week winning on the road as ‘Dog and now dressed up as road favorite. Pittsburgh was a fraud last season making the playoffs despite poor stat profiles, and they’ll be exposed soon. Perhaps even against one of the worst teams in the league to start the season. A classic Ugly ‘Dog to get the bone.

The Bears are an addition to our Week 2 underdog picks, as the market may be peaking on the Texans. The lookahead line on this game was Houston -3.5, and BTW, next week's Week 3 lookahead line of Houston -3.5 AT Minnesota is an even greater mispricing making the Vikings an advance bet. The Bears will get better on offense, and last week's poor performance by rookie QB Caleb Williams and the Bears offense averaging 2.8 yards per play in victory will improve (first team in 7 years to win game with less than 2.8 YPPL). The market has over-adjusted, and the Bears defense can be dominant to clearly keep them in this contest, making under 45.5 a bet as well. 

Game total pick this week is NY Jets/Titans Under 41.5 or 42 with downward movement.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.