NFL Week 6 Predictions and Underdog Picks
The NFL Week 6 schedule has 6 division games including the Thursday night San Francisco 49ers (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2) matchup with the Seahawks leading the NFC South and the only team with a winning record. Both teams enter off a loss in Week 5 as 7-point favorites. Then the bookend on Monday Night Football features an AFC East showdown with the Buffalo Bills (3-2) at New York Jets (2-3), who fired their head coach Robert Salah this week. Those two AFC preseason division favorites both enter off back-to-back losses and the Bills are the only team with a winning record in the division heading into NFL Week 6 action.
I'm passing on the Seahawks as a underdog pick,and the 49ers have won 5-straight over the Seahawks and Seattle QB Geno Smith is 0-6 on Thursday night football. The 49ers have played the stronger schedule of opponents, and also project to have the edge at the point of attack and in the running game. NFL home underdogs are just 7-15 SU and 10-11-1 ATS following an 0-3 Week 5 result. That has to change soon right? There are 9 home underdogs in Week 6 after the Titans flipped from home 'Dog to favorite.
Following four straight weeks of winning NFL underdog picks, we also took the collar in Week 5 as our 'Dogs sh*t the bed dropping our 2024 season NFL underdog picks to 10-6 ATS and greater than 57% ATS the past 7+ years (200-150 ATS) posting weekly at Off Shore Gaming Association.
As the last week moved towards the weekend following our earlier picks, I liked the Las Vegas Raiders far less and the Cleveland Browns also. Both were buried and especially the Browns allowing 434 yards at 6.7 yards per play at Washington including a week-high 215 rushing yards on 34 attempts - key rushing stats indicators for winning results. Looking at rushing attempts, teams that ran the ball at least 30 times in Week 5 games went 9-0 SU/ATS and are now 41-6 SU and 39-7-1 ATS (84%) this season. Teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are 47-12 SU and 46-11-2 ATS (80%) - above the historical level of near 75%. The Browns were dominated in a 34-13 defeat with dipsh*t QB Deshaun Watson taking the money and run as the Browns posted a week-low 212 yards offense. The Browns are dead last in the league in Yards Per Play YPP margin and DVOA despite playing a weaker schedule.
The Raiders-Broncos game was close in stats but not final result in the Broncos 34-18 win with a key Pick 6 and 100-yard INT return as the Raiders were going in for a potential TD and 17-3 lead. Instead, a 3-0 turnover differential was the difference in defeat, and those teams with a 3 turnover disadvantage in a NFL game are now 0-6 SU/ATS when on the short end of the turnover battle.
The top online sportsbooks had a tough Week 5 as well with betting favorites going 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS, so the underdogs struggled. Our weekly Opinions and Considerations for underdog picks looked long and hard at the Giants and Cowboys, who both won outright. But key injuries and more weekly injuries piling up had us pass, and we'll review the Week 6 injury reports Friday before making final Week 6 underdog picks recognizing that we may lose some value or key numbers as betting lines adjust.
Early NFL Week 6 tickets
— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) October 8, 2024
72% SF -3.5 @ SEA
63% CHI -1 v JAX
78% WAS +6.5 @ BAL
52% AZ +5.5 @ GB
51% NE +7 v HOU
77% TB -3.5 @ NO
57% CLE +9.5 @ PHI
66% IND -1 @ TEN
54% DEN +3 v LAC
74% PIT -3 @ LV
66% ATL -6.5 @ CAR
65% DET -3.5 @ DAL
65% CIN -3.5 @ NYG
70% BUF -2.5 @ NYJ…
NFL Week 6 Odds And Betting Data
By the way, you may be realizing how difficult it is to win picking NFL side winners each week ATS, let alone a top-of-the-leaderboard > 57% ATS over 7+ years including a 70% season ATS and previously 8-straight winning NFL seasons. Last week's losses by the most popular NFL Survivor picks on the Seahawks and 49ers dropped the Circa Survivor entries to 221 entries remaining from 14,266 that started Week 1. That's just picking the straight up (SU) winner each week without point spread! Also, the BetOnline Second Chance Surivor started in Week 5 since so many had been eliminated, and 58% of entries were eliminated in Week 5 alone.
Some notable Week 6 line moves including from the Week 6 lookahead lines include:
- CLE at PHI - Eagles from -6.5 to current -9.5
- TB at NO - Bucs from +3 to -3.5 (Saints QB Carr out, S. Rattler likely in)
- IND at TEN - Titans from +1 to -2.5 (QB Joe Flacco in for Anthony Richardson, RB J. Taylor out)
- ATL at CAR - Falcons -3 to -6 (Panthers suck)
- WSH at SF - 49ers from -7 to -6
The Ravens (34.4), Commanders (33.6) and Steelers (32.8) lead the league in rushing attempts per game with duel, running quarterbacks. The Ravens run defense allows a league-low 60 rushing yards per game to the Commanders 130 YPG in their Week 6 matchup.
Injuries kept us off the Dallas Cowboys winner in Week 5, and more injury concerns for the Cowboys following a physical game at Pittsburgh. In addition, the Detroit Lions enter off a bye week with a significant rest advantage, and same for the Chargers at Denver, Titans at home vs. Colts and Eagles at home vs. bumbling Browns. The Bucs and Falcons have extra rest and prep this week off their Week 5 Thursday night game.
Week 6 Underdog Opinions and Considerations
Jacksonville (+2) vs. Chicago (London) - Jaguars Moneyline +110
New England (+7) vs. Houston - Patriots Moneyline +250 (Rookie QB Drake Maye 1st start)
New Orleans (+3.5) vs. Tampa Bay - Saints Moneyline +160 (QB Carr out)
Las Vegas (+3) vs. Pittsburgh - Raiders Moneyline +145
Carolina (+6) vs. Atlanta - Panthers Moneyline +220
New York Giants (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati - Giants Moneyline +155
New York Jets (+2.5) vs. Buffalo - Jets Moneyline +120
The ugliest underdog card and considerations of the season. None of teams mentioned above have a winning record. Carolina fits some proven, profitable ATS situations despite sucking so bad, but update is they now have 10 starters out for this week's division home game vs. Falcons. But that's been the contrary way of winning so far on underdogs, who are 18-6-1 ATS this season when priced at +5.5 or more points. The Dallas Cowboys (+3) and Washington Commanders (+6.5) are still in the mix as winning teams as underdogs as we evaluating more, including the Denver Broncos as division home 'Dog with a winning record. Update, I've played the Chargers, so Broncos are out as home 'Dog with LA off a bye and favorable matchups and slow the run to put pressure on Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix. It won't be a big card despite more Opinions and Considerations, but we'll shoot for better Game Selection Management and Underdog Picks this week.
The Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams and Vikings have a bye in Week 6. Looking ahead to Week 7, the Bears and Cowboys have a bye week.
Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks
Check Friday and into weekend for underdog picks, analysis, stats, ATS notes and information you can bet on. Update, evaluating more into the weekend including injuries, line moves and matchups. As of Sunday morning, no additional underdog picks.
Jacksonville (+2) vs. Chicago (London) - Jaguars Moneyline +105
Las Vegas (+3) vs. Pittsburgh - Raiders Moneyline +145
New York (+2.5) vs Buffalo - Jets Moneyline +110
Adding the Jets Sunday morning and seeing downward line movement and will grade at Jets +2, although select sportsboiks still showing +2.5. Of course, moneyline and also teasers in play on Jets. Working on separate MNF writeup including player props.
Pittsburgh at Las Vegas. Initial projections were a Steelers rushing edge, as Pittsburgh has the 3rd-highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation. But the Raiders run defense is top 10 and can contain QB Justin Fields while also forcing the Bro into (fumbles) mistakes in the passing game as the Raiders have the 6th-highest man-coverage rate in the NFL. Fields yards per attempt against man is just 74% of his yards per attempt versus zone coverage (30th). The Steelers were dominated at home in a physical game last week by the Cowboys, and both Dallas and Indy rushed the ball 30+ times on the Steelers in victories. I bet the Steelers under 8.5 season wins, and believe they are still worth fading after a 3-0 start. While the Raiders have had ongoing injuries and issues (DE MAXX was back last week, 2 sacks) and now change to Aiden O'Connell at quarterback (5-4 last year), this is a game Vegas can clearly win and the Steelers also apply to a 10-42-1 ATS situation (Dr. Bob Sports) that applies to teams coming off consecutive upset losses.
Week 6 rushing edges & notable projections:
- 49ers over Seahawks
- Ravens over Commanders
- Eagles over Browns
- Steelers over Raiders
- Lions over Cowboys
New starting QB's this week Rookie Drake Maye (Patriots), Spencer Rattler (Saints), Aidan O'Connell (Raiders).
More updates and information you can bet on into the weekend including MNF as we chip-in more Monday Night Football picks and props following Week 4 winners and look strongly at the NY Jets as an underdog pick.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.