NFL Week 4 Predictions and Underdog Picks

The NFL Week 4 schedule has five division games including the Thursday night Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants game, which makes our weekly underdog picks card. It follows a week of 8 outright underdog winners in Week 3, and we had two of them in the Vikings and Eagles for a 2-1 week. That followed a 3-0 Sunday sweep in Week 1 and 4-1-1 Week 2 results where we chipped in many more opinion winners on underdogs and totals.

Now into Week 4 to finish September, Fairways Football Forecast is firing for more birdies and greens on the gridiron. We'll fire for the green looking to add to our 9-3 ATS 'Dog record this season and greater than 57% ATS (199-147) now in our 8th year posting at Off Shore Gaming Association with complimentary winners while helping bettors earn while they learn to profit from the experience. 

So what did we learn in Week 3 and the month of September pro football? Well, Bryce Young is a bust and won't be getting his starting job back after backup QB Andy Dalton passed for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns to lead the pathetic Panthers to a one-sided win over the Las Vegas Raiders. That was a pitiful performance by the Raiders, who are the worst rushing team in the league thus far. But the Jacksonville Jaguars play Monday night was pathetic as well in a 47-10 stampede by the Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars joined the Tennessee Titans and fellow Monday Night Football loser Cincinnati Bengals as the winless teams this season. 

We also know many bettors and pick sellers are struggling, along with Survivor contest players. Five more NFL underdogs of a TD or more won last week, knocking a high percentage of contest players out of their survivor pools with the Bengals most popular in Week 3 (again) followed by the brutal Browns and Buccaneers.

NFL Week 4 Odds And Betting Data

The NFL Week 4 schedule includes 8 games that are lined at 3 points or less on the spread. That includes the most anticipated watch and wager game on Sunday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens . A second straight week of Monday Night Football doubleheaders is scheduled as well with AFC and NFC non-divisional matchups. 

Early NFL Week 4 tickets

83% DAL -6 @ NYG
57% NO +1 @ ATL
69% PIT -2 @ IND
68% JAX +7 @ HOU
61% MIN +2.5 @ GB
51% CAR +4.5 v CIN
64% LAR +2.5 @ CHI
57% DEN +7.5 @ NYJ
64% PHI -2.5 @ TB
67% WAS +3.5 @ AZ
54% NE +10 @ SF
54% LV -1 v CLE
66% LAC +8.5 v KC
65% BUF +2.5 @ BAL
61% TEN…

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) September 25, 2024

Week 4 Underdog Opinions and Considerations

New York (+6) vs. Dallas - Giants Moneyline +205 at BetOnline
New Orleans (+1.5) at Atlanta - Saints Moneyline +110
Minnesota (+2.5) at Green Bay - Vikings Moneyline +122
Carolina (+4.5) vs. Cincinnati - Panthers Moneyline +180
Los Angeles (+8.5) vs. Kansas City - Chargers Moneyline +330

A number of key injuries in the Week 4 injury report include Chargers-Chiefs players with QB Justin Herbert likely out (ankle). He'll have an extra week of rest with the Chargers bye week before tackling AFC West rival Denver Broncos in Week 6 with a rest advantage. Also with bye's in Week 5 following this week's games are the Eagles plus Lions and Titans, who both play on Monday Night Football to conclude Week 4 pro football action. 

I don't anticipate more than a few underdog picks this week for straight bets, but again take a shot on select teasers while adding game totals and other props. That includes bets on the Vikings-Packers game under the total along with Eagles-Bucs. 

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Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 4 Underdog Picks

New York (+6) vs. Dallas - Giants Moneyline +205

Update: No Sunday underdog picks from above or added. Off field issues and didn't care for card of underdogs as mentioned earlier. 

A few totals I played MIN/GB Under & QB Jordon Love will return from injury and play. Lean/Opinion Vikings now +3. Also PHI/TB Under among others. 

Check back Friday, and again over the weekend as we finalize our Underdog picks and ATS info, analysis and information you can bet on. 

The Giants have a better net yards per play than Dallas (-0.7), who is allowing 6.0 yards per play on defense this season after looking so dominant in Week 1. And dominant is what Dallas has been in this series winning last year 40-0 and 44-17 to extend the Cowboys win streak to 7 against the G-men and 12-of-13 the past 7 years. The Giants had 7 sacks last week in a road win at Cleveland, whose offensive line has been banged up. Now they'll take aim at Dak Prescott (269 YPG), who leads the league in passing while averaging a league-high 41 attempts per game. The Cowboys running game struggles (73 YPG) has them at the bottom of the NFC with the Bears rushing attack while running the ball an NFC-low 20 times per game. Those rushing stats will not have them rushing to the window, and the Giants can hang tough if they model the Ravens blueprint of success against Dallas last week (274 rush yards, 45 attempts), and QB Daniel Jones protects the ball and continues to get it in the hands of star rookie WR Malik Nabors. 

Updates: Action Network media and research team report that NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 8-5 SU and 12-1 ATS through 3 weeks. That's the best start ATS for "big dogs" in history. Underdogs of 7+ points have gone 4-0 SU - first time dogs of 7+ are above .500 SU through 3 weeks since 1956. Still, YTD favorites are 29-19 SU and 22-24-2 ATS, so underdogs just above .500 ATS. Fairway's Forecast 9-3 ATS picking only select underdogs into Week 4. 

Week 4 rushing edges & notable projections:
- Steelers over Colts
- Eagles over Buccaneers
- 49ers over Patriots
- Browns over Raiders
- Ravens over Bills
- Lions over Seahawks 

Note that teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are a 75% ATS winning situation, as I've tracked the boxscore data and other stats for more than 2 decades and updated in current NFL rushing stats article. This season those teams with that 30 yards rushing edge in a game are 32-8 SU and 31-8-1 ATS. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game (when their opponent does not) are 26-5 SU and 23-7-1 ATS while teams that run the ball less than 23 times in a game are 4-27 SU and 6-27 ATS.

Point of attack play often rules the day. So be sure to check the Week 4 injury reports as well as you watch, wager and win in your pursuit of profit. 

You can bet on it. 

Fairway Jay  is a  proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success  in NFL points spread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and has chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay  here at OSGA.com  and on X  @FairwayJay  for more sports betting insights .