Forecasting NFL 2023 Strength of Schedule and Season Wins



FairwayJay chips-in an early look at 2023 NFL strength of schedule and season win totals ahead of 2023 NFL Draft.

Insights and betting advice for the upcoming NFL season

The 2023 NFL Draft is less than a week away, and the top picks of Round 1 will go off the board starting April 27. Some of the broadcast coverage will include NFL teams and needs, and how those teams did last season. I'm not a draft analyst, but rather a point spread prognosticator, bettor and betting analyst who tries to beat the leading online sportsbooks and take advantage of the top cash bonuses. As such, we'll be using our years of NFL success to evaluate teams schedules and season win totals for the upcoming season. 

All of this is an early look to assist you with information you can bet on, and to help you profit with your picks, including NFL underdog picks, when the 2023 NFL regular season begins. We'll enter the 2023 NFL season with a record of 162-117 ATS (58.1%) on our NFL Underdog Picks the past six years with 92 outright winners - all posted weekly at Off Shore Gaming Association.

NFL Football strength of schedule betting adviceYou'll read and hear plenty of forecasts, media mentions and references to strength of schedule metrics in the months ahead. Many will reference last seasons records when comparing teams. There is no perfect way to measure strength of schedule metrics, but using season win totals has proven to be a more accurate way of gauging how teams will do in advance of the season without having yet accounted for the certainty of key injuries that will impact performances. 

All NFL teams opponents are finalized for the 2023 season. The official schedule is released May 11. 

NFL Strength of Schedule 2023

Using season win totals from leading online sportsbook BetOnline, here are the current 2023 season win totals for each team and team rankings for strength of schedule from easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) for the 2023 season. 

Rank Team  2022 Record Season Win Total 2023
1 New Orleans Saints  7-10  9.5 (Over -130)
2 Atlanta Falcons 7-10 8 (O -115)
3 Carolina Panthers 7-10 7.5 (O -140)
4 Indianapolis Colts 4-12 6.5 (O -130)
5 Chicago Bears 3-14 7.5 (O -130)
6 Houston Texans 3-13 5.5 (O -130)
7 Tennessee Titans 7-10 7.5 (O -130)
8 Detroit Lions 9-8 9.5 (O -130)
9 Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8 9.5 (O -135)
10 San Francisco 49ers 13-4 11 (O -125)
11 Pittsburgh Steelers 9-8 8.5 (O -115)
12 Green Bay Packers 8-9 7.5 (O -130)
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 6.5 (O -130)
14 Cleveland Browns 7-10 9 (O -115)
15 Cincinnati Bengals 12-4 11.5 (O -140)
16 Philadelphia Eagles 14-3 10.5 (O -130)
17 Seattle Seahawks 9-8 8.5 (O -125)
18 Los Angeles Rams 5-12 7.5 (-140)
19 New York Giants 9-7-1 8.5 (-145)
20 Denver Broncos 5-12 8.5 (O -125)
21 Arizona Cardinals 4-13 5.5 (O -150)
22 Baltimore Ravens 10-7 8.5 (O -145)
23 Dallas Cowboys 12-5 9.5 (O -145)
24 Minnesota Vikings 13-4 8.5 (O -140)
25 New York Jets 7-10 9.5 (O -130)
26 Los Angeles Chargers 10-7 9.5 (O -115)
27 Washington Commanders 8-8 7 (O -125)
28 Miami Dolphins 9-8 9.5 (O -125)
29 Las Vegas Raiders 6-11 7.5 (O -155)
30 Kansas City Chiefs 14-3 11.5 (O -135)
31 Buffalo Bills 13-3 10.5 (O -140)
32 New England Patriots 8-9 7.5 (O -130)

Using Strength of Schedule to Forecast Season Wins and Playoffs

Using strength of schedule can assist you in identifying more season win total betting opportunities and uncovering potential value to cash in. I use various sites, stats, analytics and sources when making projections and picks, including Sharp Football Analysis. 

Last year (2022), teams with the toughest strength of schedule struggled and only the Chiefs and Bengals made the playoffs.

- Of the 10 teams predicted to have the hardest 2022 schedules, only two went to the playoffs (Bengals, Chiefs)
- Of the 7 teams forecast to have losing records, but predicted to have easier than average schedules, five went over their season win total (Commanders, Giants, Jaguars, Lions, Panthers)
- Of the 9 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, six went to the playoffs (49ers, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Eagles, Ravens, Vikings)

The Giants and Eagles ended up having the two easiest SOS in 2022, and both teams sailed over their season win totals. The Eagles buried the Giants in the playoffs on their way to a Super Bowl 57 appearance. 

Strength of Schedule Accuracy

NFL betting tips season wins totals- Of the 7 teams that actually had the easiest 2022 schedules, six went to the playoffs (49ers, Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles, Jaguars)
- Of the 7 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, two went to the playoffs (Bengals, Dolphins)
- Of the 11 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, only three went over their win total (Bengals, Jets, Steelers)
- Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the hardest 2021 schedules, only three went over their projected win total (Cardinals, Raiders, Steelers)
- Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the easiest 2021 schedules, only three went under their projected win total (Bills, Broncos, Browns)

So, for the 2023 NFL regular season, four teams are playing much easier schedules than last season and have a solid shot at making (dramatic?) improvement in wins - Saints, Falcons, Panthers and Bears

For the second-straight season, the Raiders, Chiefs, Bills and Patriots have tougher schedules. For the 2023 season, those four teams schedules rank as the most difficult when using current season win totals as your guide and metrics for projecting the toughest and easiest NFL schedules. 

Keep all this in mind and reference this article in the months ahead as you evaluate the teams and NFL Draft, schedules, injuries and preseason personnel and projections for the 2023 season.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights. 


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