The 2020 NFL Draft played to form in the top 10 picks before a few 'upsets' and plus price winners came in. Player market moves and betting odds showed chalk bettors cashing in early with little suspense in the top-4 picks. Then QB's Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) and Justin Herbert (Chargers) were picked No. 5 and No. 6 which were popular bets at sportsbooks like William Hill and Sportsbetting.ag. Joe Burrow was the No. 1 overall pick and his quarterback odds were out of site rising above -7000 at some leading online sportsbooks just before the draft.
Tagovailoa's draft position closed at 3.5 at William Hill, and more than 65% of the tickets and money wagered cashed in on the 'over'. Miami (-150) was the favorite to pick quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, also his odds and draft position were dropping close to Thursday's Round 1 of draft day. Tua became a quarterback you can bet on and the most popular props were on Tagovailoa. William Hill Director of Trading Nick Bogdanovich said Tua was "drawing the most interest and bets."
There were no trades in the top 10 picks for the first time since 2015. The trades that took place were Tampa Bay and San Francisco swapping No. 13 and 14, Minnesota and San Francisco swapping No. 25 and 31, Miami and Green Bay swapping No. 26 and 30, and New England giving the No. 23 pick to the LA Chargers in exchange for pick No. 37 (second round) and No. 71 (third round) in the 2020 draft. The Vikings also received picks No. 117 (fourth round) and 176 from the 49ers (fifth round). The Packers gave up pick No. 141 (fourth round) in the first round swap with the Dolphins. And San Francisco also gets pick No. 117 (fourth round) while the Buccaneers get pick No. 245 (seventh round) in their first round pick swap.
The draft picks chart includes some of the over/under props offered at elite rated online sportsbooks William Hill, SportsBetting.ag and BetOnline.
|Pick||Team||Player, POS||College||Draft O/U Prop|
|1||Cincinnati Bengals||Joe Burrow, QB||LSU|
|2||Washington Redskins||Chase Young, DE||Ohio State||2.5 (U -1200)|
|3||Detroit Lions||Jeff Okudah, CB||Ohio State||4.5 (U-120)|
|4||New York Giants||Andrew Thomas, OT||Georgia||10.5 (Over -120)|
|5||Miami Dolphins||Tua Tagovailoa, QB||Alabama||4.5 (Over -250)|
|6||Los Angeles Chargers||Justin Herbert, QB||Oregon||5.5 (Over -125)|
|7||Carolina Panthers||Derrick Brown, DT||Auburn||8.5 (Under -120)|
|8||Arizona Cardinals||Isaiah Simmons, LB||Clemson||6.5 (Under -125)|
|9||Jacksonville Jaguars||CJ Henderson, CB||Florida|
|10||Cleveland Browns||Jedrick Wills, OT||Alabama||8.5 (Under -150)|
|11||New York Jets||Mekhi Becton, OT||Louisville||9.5 (-110)|
|12||Las Vegas Raiders||Henry Ruggs, WR||Alabama||14.5 (Under -120)|
|13||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Tristan Wirfs, OT||Iowa||8.5 (Under -150)|
|14||San Francisco 49ers||Javon Kinlaw, DT||S. Carolina||13.5 (-110)|
|15||Denver Broncos||Jerry Jeudy, WR||Alabama||12.5 (Under -175)|
|16||Atlanta Falcons||A.J. Terrell, CB||Clemson|
|17||Dallas Cowboys||CeeDee Lamb, WR||Oklahoma State||12.5 (Under -140)|
|18||Miami Dolphins||Austin Jackson, OT||USC|
|19||Las Vegas Raiders||Damon Arnette, CB||Ohio State|
|20||Jacksonville Jaguars||K'Lavon Chaisson, LB||LSU||16.5 (Over -135)|
|21||Philadelphia Eagles||Jalen Reagor, WR||TCU|
|22||Minnesota Vikings||Justin Jefferson, WR||LSU||19.5 (-110)|
|23||Los Angeles Chargers||Kenneth Murray, LB||Oklahoma||21.5 (Over -130)|
|24||New Orleans Saints||Cesar Ruiz, C||Michigan|
|25||San Francisco 49ers||Brandon Aiyuk, WR||Arizona St.|
|26||Green Bay Packers||Jordan Love, QB||Utah State||19.5 (Over -135)|
|27||Seattle Seahawks||Jordyn Brooks, LB||Texas Tech|
|28||Baltimore Ravens||Patrick Queen, LB||LSU||24.5 (Under -120)|
|29||Tennessee Titans||Isaiah Wilson, OT||Georgia|
|30||Miami Dolphins||Noah Igbinoghene, CB||Auburn|
|31||Minnesota Vikings||Jeff Gladney, CB||TCU||47.5 (-110)|
|32||Kansas City Chiefs||Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB||LSU|
*Over/Under odds adjusted and moved more in the days leading up to the NFL Draft. Not all players drafted had props offered.
When wide receiver Henry Ruggs went to the Las Vegas Raiders at pick No. 12, it not only cashed at +375 at Sportsbetting.at as first wide receiver drafted (up to +600 at other sportsbooks), but also came in under his 14.5 over/under pick position.
Overall, there were six wideouts picked in the first round, with 58% of the total dollars wagered coming in on over 5.5 at William Hill. Some other sportsbooks moved the wide receiver draft prop to 6.5, so there was a chance to cash in either way for those that had accounts or shopped draft position and odds at the leading online sportsbooks like BetOnline.
Offensive line was another popular position on Thursday, with Georgia’s Andrew Thomas (3/1) the first one drafted No. 4 by the New York Giants. Seven offensive linemen went in the first round, as more than 70% of the total number of tickets and greater than 90% of the total dollars wagered were on over 6.5 offensive lineman.
The final pick of the first round to the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs was a swing pick for the sportsbooks. Most had 'Yes' (-170) that a running backs would be drafted in the first round. The Chiefs selected RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire from LSU, and as the first running back selected he also cashed in at +500 and in a head-to-head (+150) match-up over KJ Dobbins.
Players whose "YES" closed at plus money for being drafted in the first round who cashed were Noah Igbinoghene (+180), Jeff Gladney (+170), Jalen Reagor (+150) and Brandon Aiyuk (+110). Also, a William Hill bettor wagered $2,500 on Michigan offensive lineman Cesar Ruiz (+110) being taken in Round 1 and the Saints rewarded the bettor with Ruiz going at pick No. 24.
The SEC set a conference record with 15 players taken in Round 1 (Over/Under 15.5) and more than 90% of William Hill bettors had 'under' 15.5.. The Big Ten had five players taken and went under 5.5. The ACC (O/U 2.5) had three players taken, Big 12 (3.5) with four and Pac-12 (2.5) also cashed over with three players drafted in Round 1.
Positional props drafted were right near the (Over/Under) numbers with wide receiver and offensive lineman expected to have the most first round picks, and they did with six and seven respectively.
Quarterbacks: 4 (4.5)
Running Backs: 1 (0.1)
Wide Receivers: 6 (5.5)
Offensive Linemen: 7 (6.5)
Linebackers: 4 (4.5)
Defensive Linemen:3 (6)
NFL viewership soared to a record high 15.6 million across the network and digital channels, and wagering on the 2020 NFL Draft was at an all-time high with a record number of props offered at leading online sportsbooks. Hopefully, most bettors were able to wager smartly while being caught up in the NFL Draft.
As you watch Rounds 2 and 3 of the NFL Draft Friday and tune into some of the betting channels like VSiN that provide NFL Draft betting coverage, note the player props and changes in odds. The remaining Over/Under draft position props and odds for skill position players have been updated following Round 1 at BetOnline and Sportsbetting.ag.
QB Jacob Eason: 52.5 (Over -175)
QB Jalen Hurts: 51.5 (Over -190)
QB Jake Fromm: 70.5 (Over -220)
RB D'Andre Swift: 38.5 (Over -240)
RB Jonathan Taylor: 44.5 (Over -160)
RB JK Dobbins: 50.5 (Under -150)
WR Tee Higgins: 41.5 (Under -125)
WR Denzel Mims: 39.5 (Under -175)
TE Cole Kmet: 43.5 (Over -180)
Just prior to the NFL Draft, the over/under draft position for players expected to go in Round 2 or 3 were as follows at William Hill:
QB Jacob Eason: 57.5
QB Jalen Hurts: 62.5
QB Jake Fromm: 72.5
RB Jonathan Taylor: 36.5
RB JK Dobbins: 49.5
RB Cam Akers: 71.5
WR Tee Higgins 34.5
WR Laviska Shenault, Jr.: 45.5
WR Michael Pittman: 52.5
TE: Adam Trautman: 66.5
Follow updates including on Twitter at BetOnline, SportsBetting.ag and William Hill for more NFL Draft updates and information you can bet on.
FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay