Player props for Super Bowl LVIII
It's Big Game weekend in Las Vegas and I've been making rounds ahead of Super Bowl LVIII. That includes to Mandalay Bay for the Super Bowl Experience, along with other events including LIV Golf. I'll be at Circa Resort downtown Las Vegas for a Big Game Bash and media event, and betting some additional player props at Circa Sports. I included coverage of the top sportsbooks in Las Vegas with Circa now a top of the leaderboard player on the biggest and best sportsbooks scene.
As you consider contests and bonuses ahead of the big game, be sure to check out leading online and offshore sportsbooks in OSGA's Betting Scene coverage.
Those sportsbooks in Vegas and the leading online sportsbooks are taking record wagers in bets and money, and popular prop bets are driving added interest and especially player props for the San Francsico 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. I chipped-in Super Bowl LVIII picks and coverage this week, and decided to add a separate piece here for player props and advanced stats with information you can bet on.
In addition, one major U.S. online sportsbook is reporting almost 8x as many bets on the Chiefs moneyline than the 49ers. The spread has also been skewed to a lesser degree with almost 3x as many bets on the Chiefs (+2) than the 49ers.
I review stats and have posted notable rushing stats and more during the NFL Playoffs. Teams that outrush their opponents are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in this year's NFL playoffs. Last year they were 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS heading into the Super Bowl. The Chiefs then won and covered while outrushing the Eagles 158-115 despite Philly have a sizeable rushing yards and attempts edge over the Chiefs for the season ahead of the Big Game. Matchups in the ground game played out in the Chiefs favor, but the Eagles and QB Hurts passed for more than 300 yards while Mahomes passed for just 182 yards in victory. Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are now 42-15 straight up (SU) and 40-14-3 against the spread, ATS (74%). You can review more ATS info and stats on the Chiefs-49ers in my Super Bowl opening odds report from last week.
While rushing is important in both yards and attempts, note that teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 44-13 SU and 37-17-3 ATS in the Super Bowl. The 49ers ranked No. 1 net yards per passing attempt with Brock Purdy during the regular season. Kansas City was No. 13 with Patrick Mahomes.
Check out some of my additional stats and research including turnovers in my Super Bowl LVIII odds, stats, tips and trends in Forbes, which were also referenced in the popular Marc Lawrence daily Coffee Club email newsletter.
I also research advanced stats and get information and stats from other reliable sources with so much to cover, and uncover when making prop bets and player props. I'll reference some stats below with some credit as well to Dr. Bob Sports. I'll be researching more advanced stats and corresponding with colleagues ahead of the Big Game, so check back for additional player props.
I had posted a 6-0 mark on player props during the NFL divisional round on Forbes, and add more here for the Big Game and Super Bowl LVIII.
Super Bowl Matchup and Stats
When trying to determine the winner of Super Bowl LVIII with a tight point spread, know that prior to the NFL Playoffs, the 49ers were projected as a 5-point favorite over the Chiefs, and now San Francisco is -2. So what's happened? The Chiefs have looked and played better than the 49ers in the playoffs while also beating better teams on the road in Buffalo and Baltimore and home against Miami. The 49ers were fortunate to beat both Green Bay and Detroit at home while trailing each contest. In fact, the Packers win probability at one point was greater than 80%, and the Lions greater than 90%. But that doesn't mean the Niners can't play better, or that they still have some more favorable matchups.
One of those is clearly in the running game attacking the Chiefs, whose weakness is stopping the run. Kansas City's run defense ranks bottom 10 in the league in a number of categories including DVOA, EPA, run-stop win rate, and explosive carries allowed. Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is expected to have a very strong game again after leading the NFL in rushing this season. He's a clear Super Bowl MVP (+450) candidate if the 49ers win as we project. But I would prefer if Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk win MVP as I have both of them at 80/1 odds prior to last round, and those two are now 20/1 and 55/1. Samuel should also get some carries and end arounds to add to the 49ers run success rate. Also, the 49ers would not have advanced without QB Brock Purdy moving and scrambling to make key plays late against the Packers, and the second half vs. Lions when finishing with 5 carries for 48 yards.
The Chiefs defense finished the Ravens game with a 41% dime personnel rate, which is a high rate that stifled and confused sometimes incompetent QB Lamar Jackson, who fumbled and had an interception among other bad throws and decisions. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been content to allow teams more success running the ball while trying to limit big chunk plays and passing attacks. Recall that the Bills rushed for 182 yards on 39 carries against the Chiefs in defeat, and were the only team in this year's playoffs to outrush their opponent and lose both SU and ATS, and also the only team to run the ball at least 30 times and lose in this year's playoffs.
The 49ers use a 21 personnel package at 5x the league average (2 RBs and 1 TE), going under center while running the ball more and utilzing zone blocking schemes. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is so valuable, and he can actually be another fit to catch some short screens and go over 4.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs allowed a 40% rush success rate in regular season, but among the worst againts zone runs, allowing a 52% success rate (29th in NFL), and the 49ers call zone blocking on 75% of their carries.
The 49ers average a league-high .43 EPA per play vs. blitz, and .21 when not blitzed. The Chiefs won't blitz too much, despite the 49ers ranking No. 23 in pass blocking efficiency with not enough top pass blockers other than LT Trent Williams. Niners RT Colton McKivitz allowed 9 sacks this season - 4th most in NFL. The Chiefs have top DT Chris Jones and DE George Karlaftis to cause havoc, but the Chiefs lost DL Charles Omenihu to a torn ACL last game vs. the Ravens.
The 49ers WR's of Deebo Samuel (9th EPA per target in NFL) and Brandon Aiyuk (3rd in yards per route run in NFL) are a top, talented tandum. But the Chiefs have had success shutting down top receivers, and just 37% of opposing targets to outside receivers. Aiyuk leads SF with 76% of his snaps outside. The Chiefs use 2-high safety coverage on 63% of snaps, and Deebo has a 27% target share with both him and Aiyuk (18%) in games this season.
Brock Purdy has been his most productive when blitzed, gaining a league-high +53.2 passing EPA against the blitz during the regular season.— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 7, 2024
Purdy also led the NFL with 11 TDs on passes outside of the tackle box, 4 of which came against the Blitz (T-1st).#SuperBowlLVIII | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/aoYTksuP0l
Looks like more 49ers plays underneath vs. 2-high coverages, and QB Brock Purdy is better than average throwing screens. So McCaffrey and Samuel are the impact, and RB's have 28 targets vs. Chiefs in three games this post season. That's right in McCaffrey's wheelhouse, as he 56% receiving success rate led the NFL, and jumps to 61% success rate vs. man coverage, and the Chiefs called the 7th most man coverage. McCaffrey also had 250 receiving yards when lined up out wide. Remember, Bills RB James Cook had 141 rushing and receiving yards vs. the Chiefs in a December game, and 82 total yards (61 rushing on 18 carries) in the playoff loss in January. Christian McCaffrey is going to be bet more to go over his props yards, but he's the ideal fit and player to have success in the Niners offense and system against the Chiefs.
Next Gen Stats noted that Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes completed 26-of-28 attempts last playoff game vs. the Ravens with less than 10 air yards. He excelled on third down, and 49ers defense surrounders 0.13 EPA per drop back more since Week 11 when their All-Pro Talanua Ofunga tore his ACL. The Niners defense surrendered a 75% rush success rate outside the tackles vs. the Packers and Lions in the playoffs. The Chiefs offense and OL led NFL with 30 holding calls, but In the past 10 years, the UNDER is 97-66-1 (60%) in NFL games that Bill Vinovich's officiating crew averaged a league-low 1.4 offensive holding penalties per game. In the past 10 years, the game total is Under at a 60% rate (97-66-1) in NFL games that Bill Vinovich has officiated (BetLabs).
The strength of KC's OL is on the interior, but LG Joe Tuney missed the Ravens game (pectoral) and is likely out for the Super Bowl with coach Andy Reid saying he would "probably bet on (backup) Nick Allegretti playing,", although he's played very well in Tuney's absence this season.
Super Bowl Player Props
Know that prop bets and player prop offerings, odds and yards vary from online sportsbooks, so check availabilty at your favorite leading online sportsbook.
- 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: Over 90.5 rushing yards and Over 4.5 receptions
- Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco: Over 15.5 rush attempts
- 49ers RB Kyle Juszczyk: Over 4.5 receiving yards
- 49ers K Jake Moody: Over 1.5 field goals (+105)
Juszczyk had 39 receiving yards vs. the Chiefs in the Super Bowl four years ago, and 34 receiving yards last season vs. the Chiefs. San Francisco will use the 21 personnel package often with Juszczyk getting some opportunities in the short passing game.
Chiefs RB Pacheco rushed at least 15 times in 9 of 12 games to close the season, and then all three playoff games as well with 24 rushing attempts against both the Dolphins and Ravens. His O/U was 15.5 when I posted the original picks and props update on Tuesday, and now it's up to 16.5. Sharp Football notes than Pacheco accounted for 77.9% of the handoffs to running backs when he was active during the regular season, and now up to 86% in three postseason games. Even in two losses to the Packers and Eagles later in the regular season, Pacheco carried the ball 18 (110 yards, TD) and 19 times (89 yards), although neither of those defenses and personnel are as talented or strong as the Niners. Still, money has supported Pacheco to get his share of carries as a focal point of the Chiefs offense in Super Bowl LVIII.
Looking for some defensive props?
- 49ers DB Deommodore Lenoir: Over 4.5 tackles and assists
Chiefs top WR Rasheed Rice had a 47% target share in the slot, and Lenoir will get attacked. San Francisco allows a very high success rate vs. screens, and QB Mahomes leads the league in screen rate. Lenoir has been on the field for 100% of the postseason snaps, and he had 5 tackles and assists vs. both Packers and Lions. All three nickelbacks in the three Chiefs playoff games had at least 6 tackles and assists vs. Chiefs.
Check back for any additional prop picks and player props Sunday morning of game day, and other information you can bet on.
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